Could the last year's weekly closing highs and lows be impacting stock prices today? I think the answer is 'yes'. Below looks at the S&P 500 over the past couple of years and specifically applies Fibonacci to last year's weekly closing highs and lows.
The S&P 500 ran into the 161% extension level at (2) — then stopped on a dime — at the end of February. Following a small decline, the rally from the past two weeks has it testing the underside of the 161% level (238), again at (3). This test of resistance/kiss of resistance is taking place as a weak seasonal time of the year, which historically starts next week.
Bulls will be happy to see SPY breakout at (3). Bears, on the other hand, want to see it double top at (3).
Running out of gas at (3) would not be good for the broad market, especially at this time of year. Keep a close eye on the 238 level for portfolio-construction guidance over the next few weeks and months.