Talk about a Bearish engulfing candlestick. Yesterday price action was very interesting, in that the market declined significantly after looking like it would rally. The decline didn’t come from a gap down and a grind lower like we have seen. As we noted yesterday, SPY needed to get above the 152.61 level in which it did not as it failed at 152.86 and moved lower. More importantly it was noted to watch 151.48 as if this level fails, the market will move much lower and be bearish.
SPY broke below multiple support levels and closed in no man's land from a technical perspective. SPY broke below 151.48 sending it lower and broke below additional support at 149.86 and 149.51. These levels will now act as resistance with the first being test today at 149.51. The only real next support level exist at 148.24 and and 147.18.
The selling more than likely does not stop at 149.00, as we know from looking at the 90% down days and when VIX jumped 34%. Because of this we can expect to see some more selling at least another 1% which puts SPY at 147.18. If SPY can get above 149.86, it is possible the selling could stop but right now the bulls have an up hill battle to climb.
Also we still don’t have an oversold condition on the Piker Signal on the daily chart or the Hourly. The Daily Chart shows that SPY still about 2 more days before its oversold, where the hourly the hourly could hit oversold at 10:00 today.