SPY Signals: March 15, 2012

 Flat
Monitoring purposes GOLD: Gold ETF GLD long at 173.59 on 9/21/11
Long Term Trend monitor purposes: Flat

Yesterday’s rally had a strong move above the highs of late February and early March of 138.Yesterday’s rally also had a close tick reading of +957 and Trin close of .43 and this combination have lead to short term pull backs. Yesterday’s rally also produced a gap near 138.  If the pull back does get to the gap near 138 and volume is 10% lighter on the test of the gap a bullish signal could get triggered.   Chart on page two shows the intermediate term uptrend is intact. Staying flat for now.

We showed this chart Monday and have updated it to today. Above is our longer term indicator that helps to find the larger trend which is the TRIN/SPY ratio. In general the TRIN stays above 1.00 in a down trending market and below 1.00 in an up trending market.  The TRIN/SPY ratio helps to visualize that relationship. The top window is the MACD of the TRIN/SPY ratio with a moving average.  We have identified bullish and bearish crossovers with blue vertical lines the buy signals and red vertical lines with sell signals. A bullish crossover occurred in early January and remains on a buy signal. Normally there is a separation in the blue and red lines on the TRIN/SPY ratio when a turn in the market is nearing and so far there is no separation which implies the intermediate term trend is up. We have identified the Head and Shoulder pattern on the SPY chart which has a target to 146 range. Right now the TRIN/SPY ratios are in a bullish intermediate configuration and therefore are looking for bullish short term signals.

A “Selling Climax” occurred on GDX on October 4, 2011 and the test came on 12/29/11.  The high between these two dates is the minimum upside target, which is the November 8, 2011 at 63.51.  Short term we where looking for a test of the January 25 which GDX closed below today and did on lighter volume and a positive sign.  Today’s decline also tested the Lower Bollinger band and previous times GDX has done this it was near a low.  The RSI also is near 30 and previous times it has been this low the market also was near a low.  We are also watching the GDX/GLD ratio and a close above the blue line would imply the rally is starting.  A close above the red line would imply an intermediate term rally is starting.  Indicators are pushed near bullish readings for the short term, but no trigger has been signaled yet. We showed the monthly chart on Last Thursday’s report which remain in bullish territory.

Long GDX 58.65 on 12/6/11. Long SLV at 29.48 on 10/20/11. Long GDXJ at 36.24 on 9/21/11. Long GLD at 173.59 on 9/21/11. Long BRD at 1.67 on 8/3/11. Long YNGFF .44 on 7/6/11. Long EGI at 2.16, on 6/30/11. Long GLD at 147.14 on 6/29/11; stop 170 hit = gain 15.5% . Long KBX at 1.13 on 11/9/10. Long LODE at 2.85 on 1/21/11. Long UEXCF at 2.07 on 1/5/11. We will hold as our core position in AUQ, CDE and KGC because in the longer term view these issues will head much higher. Holding CDE (average long at 27.7. Long cryxf at 1.82 on 2/5/08. KGC long at 6.07. Long AUQ average of 8.25.