Good Morning!
This morning’s reports are Wholesale Trade at 7:30 A.M., EIA Energy Stocks at 9:30 A.M. followed by Dairy Product Sales at 2:00 P.M. ADP Jobs number showed the 3rd best February in the recovery in at least 3 years amazing in one month how an administration can be a boom to business and cut the red tape of unfounded regulation and taxation.
Speaking of last night’s API Energy Stocks the number showed builds of 11.6 million barrels which one would guess this allotted amount is counting Crude sales from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) or did the OPEC production cuts magically produce these barrels of Oil. Or as My Cousin Vinnie would say, “are these magic grits, like Jack and the Beanstalk oil barrels?" Kidding aside these numbers make no sense and the American Petroleum Institute (API) should not charge a subscription for releasing such news. In the overnight electronic session the April Crude Oil is currently trading at 5262, which is 52 points lower. The trading range has been 5292 to 5252. As I remain bullish overall another bearish pall over the market is talk of a China economic slowdown which as in the API number last night I do not believe as emerging markets in China and India will keep pace with the new economic reforms in the U.S.
On the Natural Gas front the market is showing buoyancy with winter weather back on the March or no pun intended in March, which did not exist in January or February. If these new weather forecasts are correct, which this year’s track record of “even a broken clock is right twice a day”. I still believe we are already in shoulder season. In the overnight electronic session the April Natural Gas is currently trading at 2.914, which is 9 cents higher. The trading range has been 2.924 to 2.833.
On the Ethanol front the April contract is currently trading at 1.485, which is .006 of a cent lower. The trading range has been 1.485 to 1.484. 11 contracts traded last night with open interest at 2,287 contracts. The market is currently showing 5 bids @ 1.471 and 1 offer @ 1.486. And expect interest to pick up in the May contract with rollovers in the coming weeks.
On the Corn front it is all about tomorrow in the Grain complex. Tomorrows Crop Production USDA Supply/Demand report will give the market an education painting a picture of global demand and global production before March 31 Prospective Plantings. As an old friend and fellow trader once told me, “it is not what you plant but what you grow." Global stocks will be the key in this report this early in our season in the U.S. In the overnight electronic session the May Corn is currently trading at 374 ½ which is 1 ½ of a cent lower. The trading range has been 376 ½ to 373 ¾. We should see some squaring up in today’s action before tomorrow’s reality check at 11:00 A.M. when the dust hits the fan.
Have a Great Trading Day