US Dollar Index Speculator Positions
Large currency speculators continued to reduce their bullish net positions in the US Dollar Index futures markets again this week, according to the latest Commitment of Traders (COT) data released by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) on Friday.
The non-commercial futures contracts of US Dollar Index futures, traded by large speculators and hedge funds, totaled a net position of 11,696 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday, December 17th. This was a strong weekly decline of -10,565 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 22,261 net contracts.
This week’s net position was the result of the gross bullish position (longs) decreasing by -7,706 contracts (to a weekly total of 23,048 contracts) while the gross bearish position (shorts) rose by 2,859 contracts on the week (to a total of 11,352 contracts).
Speculators decreased their bullish bets for the eleventh consecutive week and the overall bullish position has now shed a total of -31,332 contracts over the past eleven weeks. These recent declines have now pushed the net position down to the lowest level in seventy-nine weeks, dating back to June 12th of 2018 when bullish bets totaled just +4,663 net contracts.
Individual Currencies Data this week:
In the other major currency contracts data, we saw three substantial changes (+ or – 10,000 contracts) in the speculators category this week while three other currencies had changes that were right below the 10,000 contract level.
British pound sterling speculators reduced their bearish positions for a third straight week. This week’s improvement by over +16,000 contracts brings the overall GBP speculator position to the least bearish level (-5,780 contracts) since May 14th (span of 31 weeks).
New Zealand dollar positions improved sharply this week by over +17,000 contracts and improved for a third straight week. These recent gains for the NZD contracts have brought the overall bearish position (-8,217 contracts) to the least bearish standing since April 23rd. The NZD position had recently reached an all-time record bearish position on October 1st at a total of -42,474 net contracts.
Mexican peso bullish bets jumped this week by over +20,000 contracts. This strong gain brings the current level to the most bullish standing since April 16th when the speculative position hit an all-time record of +156,030 contracts. The peso position has been above the +100,000 contract level for twelve straight weeks.
Overall, the major currencies that saw improving speculator positions this week were the British pound sterling (16,859 weekly change in contracts), euro (1,949 contracts), Japanese yen (1,620 contracts), Swiss franc (9,791 contracts), New Zealand dollar (17,123 contracts) and the Mexican peso (21,619 contracts).
The currencies whose speculative bets declined this week were the US dollar index (-10,565 weekly change in contracts), Canadian dollar (-9,550 contracts) and the Australian dollar (-9,770 contracts).
Chart: Current Strength of Each Currency compared to their 3-Year Range
See the table and individual currency charts below.Table of Large Speculator Levels & Weekly Changes:This latest COT data is through Tuesday and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets. All currency positions are in direct relation to the US dollar where, for example, a bet for the euro is a bet that the euro will rise versus the dollar while a bet against the euro will be a bet that the dollar will gain versus the euro.
Weekly Charts: Large Trader Weekly Positions vs Price
EuroFX:
The euro large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -65,694 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 1,949 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -67,643 net contracts.
British Pound Sterling:
The large British pound sterling speculator level came in at a net position of -5,780 contracts in the data reported this week. This was a weekly gain of 16,859 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -22,639 net contracts.
Japanese Yen:
Large Japanese yen speculators resulted in a net position of -42,062 contracts in this week’s data. This was a weekly advance of 1,620 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -43,682 net contracts.
Swiss Franc:
The Swiss franc speculator standing this week reached a net position of -11,074 contracts in the data through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 9,791 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -20,865 net contracts.
Canadian Dollar:
Canadian dollar speculators was a net position of 11,191 contracts this week. This was a lowering of -9,550 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 20,741 net contracts.
Australian Dollar:
The large speculator positions in Australian dollar futures came in at a net position of -46,578 contracts this week in the data ending Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -9,770 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -36,808 net contracts.
New Zealand Dollar:
The New Zealand dollar speculative standing totaled a net position of -8,217 contracts this week in the latest COT data. This was a weekly rise of 17,123 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -25,340 net contracts.
Mexican Peso:
Mexican peso speculators recorded a net position of 152,260 contracts this week. This was a weekly advance of 21,619 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 130,641 net contracts.