Speculators Now Net Short CHF‏

Published 01/20/2014, 05:56 AM
Updated 05/14/2017, 06:45 AM

The most spectacular move in positioning since the start of the year has been the massive unwinding of CHF longs and this continued last week. These flows have most likely benefited the eurozone as sentiment surrounding peripherals has improved markedly - this was further fuelled by Moody's upgrading Ireland over the weekend, see Flash Comment: Ireland upgraded to investment grade (+) by Moody's . Speculators are now net short the Swiss currency for the first time since mid-2013. This could be a hint that the EUR support from this factor may shift down a gear going forward.

Despite the dire US payrolls report, the net level of USD longs in fact rose in the week to 14 January. Notably, the US data flow has proved decent despite the recent adverse weather in North America and it now seems highly likely that the Fed will let QE tapering continue unabated at the January meeting.

More JPY shorts were unwound, thus extending the move seen since the new year where speculators have become less eager to short the Japanese currency as there is increasingly a risk that the Bank of Japan may not deliver to the extent we and others are currently looking for.

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