The latest IMM data covers the week from 28 August to 3 September.
Leading up to the ECB meeting on Thursday, speculators wiped out long EUR positions according to IMM data and probably continued to do so following Draghi’s dovish comments at the ECB meeting. At the same time, investors added to USD longs, and while some of these may have been unwound after the slightly disappointing payrolls report, a confirmation of Fed tapering in September should not be able to send EUR/USD markedly lower. Notably, should tapering be delayed until October (not our main case), there is clearly a risk that EUR/USD could edge higher again as positioning leaves room for this.
The latest stream of positive data surprises in the UK has led speculators to cover some of the many GBP shorts put on earlier in the year. However, positioning remains decisively short and thus supportive of sterling should growth continue to improve as our models hint at.
IMM data also suggest that base metal prices could be in for a comeback. Copper's positioning remains in negative territory, and in an environment where Chinese data are starting to surprise on the upside, metals should see support. On the other hand, with oil longs already at elevated levels, we look for a US-led attack on Syria to have limited and/or short-lived effect on oil prices as a significant geopolitical risk premium is already priced.
To Read the Entire Report Please Click on the pdf File Below.
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Speculators Cut EUR Longs
Published 09/09/2013, 07:22 AM
Updated 05/14/2017, 06:45 AM
Speculators Cut EUR Longs
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