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Spain Q1 Prelim GDP Slightly Beats Expectations: April 30, 2012

Published 04/30/2012, 07:00 AM
Updated 01/01/2017, 02:20 AM
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Spain Q1 Prelim GDP Slightly Beats Expectations As The Country Slipped Back Into RecessionEconomic Data

(EU) ECB: €619M borrowed in overnight loan facility v €256M prior; €794.0B parked in deposit facility v €791.3B prior

(DE) Germany Mar Retail Sales M/M: +0.8% v +1.1%e; Y/Y: +2.3% v +0.5%

(FI) Finland Feb Final Trade Balance: -€613M v -€605M prelim

(ZA) South Africa Mar Private Sector Credit Y/Y: 9.2% v 8.6%e; M3 Money Supply Y/Y: 6.7% v 6.4%e

(ES) Spain Q1 Preliminary GDP Q/Q: -0.3% v -0.4%e; Y/Y: -0.4% v -0.6%e

(ES) Spain Feb Total Housing Permits M/M: +1.0% v -8.9% prior; Y/Y: -20.8% v -22.9% prior

(TR) Turkey Mar Trade Balance: -$7.3B v -$7.2Be

(AS) Austria Mar Producer Price Index M/M: 0.0% v 0.7% prior; Y/Y: 1.4% v 2.1% prior - (SE) Sweden Mar Household Lending Y/Y: 5.0% v 4.9%e

(TH) Thailand Mar Current Account: -1.5B v +$1.3Be; Total Trade Account Balance: -$1.4B v $2.1B prior; Overall Balance: 0.8B v $2.1B prior

(TH) Thailand Mar Business Sentiment Index: 55.5 v 52.7 prior

(CZ) Czech Mar Money Supply Y/Y: 6.5 v 6.8% prior

(EU) Euro Zone Mar M3 Money Supply Y/Y: 2.8%e v 2.8% prior; M3 Money Supply 3-Month Avg: 2.7%e v 2.3% prior

(TW) Taiwan Q1 Preliminary GDP Y/Y: 0.4% v 1.0%e

(ES) Spain Feb Current Account: -€5.9B v -€5.7B prior

(HK) Hong Kong Mar M3 Money Supply Y/Y: 7.3 v 9.8% prior; M2 Money Supply Y/Y: 7.5 v 9.9% prior; M1 Money Supply Y/Y: 7.8v 9.6% prior

(HK) Hong Kong Mar Govt Monthly Budget (HKD): -10.0B v -18.0B prior

(EU) Euro Zone Apr CPI Estimate Y/Y: 2.5%e v 2.6% prior

(IT) Italy Apr Preliminary CPI (NIC incl. tobacco) M/M: 0.5% v 0.4%e; Y/Y: 3.3% v 3.2%e

(IT) Italy Apr Preliminary CPI EU Harmonized M/M: 0.9% v 0.8%e; Y/Y: 3.8% v 3.6%e

(IC) Iceland Mar Final Trade Balance (ISK): 5.4B v 5.1B prior

(GR) Greece Feb Retail Sales Value Y/Y: -11.1% v -8.8% prior; Retail Sales Volume: -13.0% v -10.6% prior

(IE) Ireland Finance Ministry: Mar bank deposits at €149B, +1% y/y

(ES) March Spanish Banks net purchases of government debt: €20.1B v €15.7B prior

(IT) March Italian Banks net purchases of government debt: €23.7B (record) v €23B prior

Fixed Income

(EU) ECB allotted €34.4B in 7-Day Main Refinancing Tender at fixed 1.0% vs. €46.4B prior

Notes/Observations

Spain Q1 Preliminary GDP better than expected but country in a technical recession.

Moody's comments on Spain: Fiscal measures positive for sovereign, regional ratings.

USD remains vulnerable as recent US GDP data still leaves door open for QE3.

Equities

Equities: FTSE 100 -0.50% at 5747, DAX +0.10% at 6808, CAC-40 -0.80% at 3239, IBEX-35 -0.60% at 7104, FTSE MIB -0.40% at 14,717, SMI -0.10% at 6108.

Following Friday's gains, European equity indices opened today' session slightly higher ahead of Friday's US nonfarm payrolls data. Markets have since moved off of the best levels, as French equities have lagged amid continued concerns about the country's presidential elections. Additionally, France's credit default swaps have moved slightly higher on the session.

Spain's IBEX-35 has also underperformed as data confirmed that the country entered a technical recession in Q1. Also, there is renewed speculation that Spain's government is seeking to ring fence certain non-performing assets of domestic banks. Banks are trading mixed, as ECB data showed that Spanish and Italian banks continued to increase their purchases of sovereign debt in March.

In terms of individual movers, shares of Swiss-name Actelion [ATLN.CH] have gained over 20%, after the company presented Phase III data on its endothelin receptor antagonist, macitentan. Anheuser-Busch InBev [ABI.BE] is lower by more than 1.5%, after reporting Q1 earnings and reaffirming its FY12 outlook. Also, the company stated that it expected Q2 to be more difficult from an EBITDA growth prospective.

In London, Aberdeen Asset Management [ADN.UK] has advanced by approximately 2.5%, following the release of its H1 figures, while Aquarius Platinum [AQP.UK] has moved lower by more than 4% after releasing its Q3 production update. Adidas [ADS.DE] is higher by over 5%, after raising its FY12 earnings and sales forecast.

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