- The S&P 500 Futures formed a 2nd entry buy yesterday (ioi pattern) on the daily chart. However, the channel down is tight, lowering the probability of buying above yesterday’s high.
- The market is finding support at the 4,500 round number and June high. The bulls can now argue that the June high breakout point gap is open. However, the odds are that the gap will close, and the bulls will become disappointed.
- The bears formed a tight bear channel down to last Friday’s high, which increases the odds of the first reversal being minor.
- The selloff down to August 4th is disappointing enough that the market is probably now in a trading range. This means sellers are probably above the July 27th high or before it.
- The bears have not done enough to make the market always in short. This means the market will probably go sideways soon and disappoint the bears.
Emini 5-minute chart and what to expect today
- Emini is down 29 points in the overnight Globex session.
- The overnight Globex market formed a 2nd leg down on the 60-minute chart following last Friday’s selloff. However, buyers are probably not far below, and the market will likely go sideways during today’s session.
- As I often say, traders should expect the open to have a lot of trading range price action. The bulls.
- Most traders should consider not trading during the first 6-12 bars since the open often has multiple reversals.
- Traders should consider trying to catch the opening swing that often begins before the end of the second hour. It is common for the opening swing to start after forming a double top/bottom or a wedge top/bottom.
- Lastly, traders should pay attention to yesterday’s and last Friday’s low, as both will probably be important magnets.
Yesterday’s Emini setups
Here are several reasonable stop-entry setups from yesterday. I show each buy entry with a green rectangle and each sell entry with a red rectangle. Buyers of both the Brooks Trading Course and Encyclopedia of Chart Patterns have access to a near 4-year library of more detailed explanations of swing trade setups (see Online Course/BTC Daily Setups). Encyclopedia members get current daily charts added to Encyclopedia.
My goal with these charts is to present an Always In perspective. If a trader was trying to be Always In or nearly Always In a position all day, and he was not currently in the market, these entries would be logical times for him to enter. These, therefore, are swing entries.
It is important to understand that most swing setups do not lead to swing trades. As soon as traders are disappointed, many exit. Those who exit prefer to get out with a small profit (scalp), but often have to exit with a small loss.
If the risk is too big for your account, you should wait for trades with less risk or trade an alternative market like the Micro Emini.