Those that view the message of the market on daily basis are likely confused by trading noise. While trading noise contributes to the long-term trends, it does not define them. Human behavior tries to explain trading noise as a meaningful trend. This confuses the majority which, in turn, contributes to their role as bagholders of trend transitions.
The only real play for soybeans is watching from the sidelines, or maybe holding significantly reduce core short position. Soybeans show a seasonal tendency to rally into December, but investors should not lose sight of alignment and energy.
Soybeans's composite trend is consolidation (Up, Up, Down). Expansion of upside alignment to the daily and weekly trends has the bulls expecting a breakout soon. The disciplined trader says perhaps. While the primary trend is down, it's getting old. Bean's monthly BrST = 1.46. Time readings above 1.5 should not be chased even if beans reenters triple downside alignment. The bulls excitement, however, should be tempered by energy.
Beans leverage profile (WA, DI, DI2) is 45%, -96%, -53%. This combination defines a strong bearish energy build. Although strong bearish energy builds usually slow or cap rallies, they can be pushed by strong retail buying. We saw that in 2012 and we're seeing that today. Ultimately, the 2012 rally failed, just as the bulls were screaming buy the loudest.
Content Bean's ProIndex has traced out new lows ahead of price. This bearish divergence defines professional selling into the consolidation. Professional selling should supports continuation of the decline.