The global US soybeans market is undergoing significant changes in 2025, "run" by shifts in production, trade dynamics, and evolving demand patterns. As one of the most important agricultural commodities, soybeans play a critical role in global food security, animal feed, and biofuel production. Let’s take a look at the key developments, shaping the soybean market right now, with a closer focus on supply challenges, demand trends, and their implications for prices and trade.
Declining U.S. Soybean Production
The United States, one of the world’s largest soybean producers (ZSH5), is facing a decline in production for the 2024/25 crop year. According to the USDA’s January 2025 World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) report, U.S. soybean production is projected at 4.366 billion bushels, down 95 million bushels from the previous estimate. This reduction is primarily attributed to lower yields, which are estimated at 50.7 bushels per acre, a decrease of 1.0 bushel from earlier projections.
- Regional Impact: States like Indiana, Kansas, South Dakota, Illinois, Iowa, and Ohio have seen significant reductions in soybean output due to adverse weather conditions and rising input costs.
- Harvested Area: The harvested area has also decreased slightly to 86.1 million acres, reflecting farmers’ decisions to shift to other crops or reduce planting due to economic pressures.
- The decline in U.S. production has tightened domestic supplies, leading to a reduction in ending stocks, which are now projected at 380 million bushels, down 90 million bushels from the previous estimate.
Global Trade Dynamics
The global soybean trade is experiencing notable adjustments in 2025. While U.S. exports remain steady at 1.825 billion bushels, other major players like Brazil are stepping up their presence in the global market.
- Brazil’s Rising Influence: Brazil, the world’s largest soybean exporter, is expected to increase its soybean crush to 56.947 million metric tons, driven by strong demand for soybean meal and soybean oil. This growth is supported by robust first-quarter exports of soybean meal, particularly to Asian markets.
- China’s Import Trends: China, the largest importer of soybeans, continues to play a pivotal role in shaping global trade. While Chinese imports remain strong, there are signs of diversification in sourcing, with increased reliance on Brazilian supplies. The global soybean trade is also influenced by geopolitical factors and logistical challenges, such as port congestion and shipping costs, which could further impact supply chains in 2025.
Demand Drivers: Feed, Food, and Biofuels
Soybean demand is being driven by three key sectors: animal feed, food production, and biofuels.
- Animal Feed: Soybean meal is a critical component of livestock and poultry feed. With global meat consumption on the rise, particularly in developing countries, demand for soybean meal is expected to remain robust.
- Food Industry: Soybean oil is widely used in food processing, from cooking oil to margarine. The growing popularity of plant-based diets is also contributing to increased demand for soy-based products.
- Biofuels: The use of soybean oil in biofuel production, particularly in the United States and Europe, is another major demand driver. The USDA projects soybean oil used for biofuels at 13.6 billion pounds for the 2024/25 marketing year, reflecting the ongoing push for renewable energy sources.
Price Trends and Market Outlook
The combination of tighter supplies and strong demand is exerting upward pressure on soybean prices. The USDA forecasts the U.S. season-average soybean price at 10.20 perbushel, unchanged from the previous month. However, prices for soybean meal and oil are expected to rise, with soybean meal projected at 10.20 perbushel, unchanged from the previous month. However, prices for soybean meal and oil are expected to rise, with soybean meal projected at 310 per short ton and soybean oil at 43 cents per pound.
The soybean market is likely to remain volatile in 2025, with prices sensitive to weather conditions, geopolitical developments, and shifts in trade policies. Over the long-term trends, the soybean market is expected to benefit from technological advancements, such as drought-resistant varieties and precision agriculture, which could help mitigate production challenges.
What's after all?
The soybean market in 2025 is characterized by a delicate balance between supply constraints and growing demand. While declining U.S. production and global trade adjustments present challenges, strong demand from the feed, food, and biofuel sectors continues to support the market. Investors and market participants should closely monitor developments in key producing and consuming regions, as well as broader macroeconomic trends, to navigate the evolving landscape of the soybean market.