Global equity markets have been readjusting to reflect the anticipated realities of President-elect Trump’s second presidential term. The market consensus seems that his administration will be characterized by stimulative, pro-growth fiscal policies, much like his first term in 2016.
In the aftermath of the presidential election, markets received strong enthusiasm.
US equities, cryptocurrency, and the dollar rallied. Treasury yields initially climbed higher across the medium-to-long dated part of the yield curve, contending with the expected inflationary consequences of stimulative policy. Stronger economic growth, higher government deficits, and potentially higher inflation can all point to higher interest rates. Yields have since readjusted downwards (but not back to pre-election results) as economic reports have shown inflation is under control. In addition, there is increased optimism that newly proposed cabinet members may moderate Trump’s tariff policy, and some initial fears about tariff wars may have subsided (for now).
Assuming the Trump administration enacts a corporate tax rate cut to 15%, we believe that reduced tax rates would provide a meaningful boost to corporate profits with greater incremental benefits moving down the company size spectrum. Fiscal policy proposals within a Trump-friendly Congress could directly impact companies’ bottom lines and bolster the corporate earnings, and merger and acquisition and environment.
Mid- and small-cap indexes may continue to exhibit more pronounced effects. These equity segments tend to be more reliant on domestic revenue sources, and they consequently pay more significant portions of their taxes overall to the U.S. government. Reducing the corporate tax rate may provide greater relief for these asset classes than for large caps, whose geographic revenue sources are more diversified.
Interest rates, however, will also disproportionately affect mid- and small-cap indexes. If interest rates rise based on expectations of increased growth and potential inflation from stimulative, pro-growth policies, this may curb growth potential for small- and mid-cap stocks. Conversely, if rates fall, that can provide a supportive backdrop for valuations as interest rate costs disproportionately will benefit smaller companies with floating rate debt obligations.
We anticipate that mid-caps and small caps would absorb more benefit from slashing the statutory rate, with nearly the entire 5% tax reduction visible in the change to their effective tax rates. This may boost earnings by 5%–6% and provide a much-needed tailwind for both asset classes. This sector has notably underperformed its large-cap peers over the last decade.
Small-cap indexes are heavily weighted toward banks and financial companies, which stand to benefit from a looser regulatory environment. Looser regulation also tends to make mergers and acquisitions easier—another positive for the smaller (as well as larger) players. Thanks to Trump's policy focus on the domestic economy, industrial companies are also heavily weighted in small-cap indexes and could be another driver of small-cap gains.
Though changes to corporate tax policy are never a foregone conclusion, we believe the joint presidential and congressional election outcomes may create additional strong catalysts for equities. The expectation of lower corporate taxes, deregulation, and leadership changes at key regulatory agencies all point an M&A environment with both increased transactions and larger deals under a Trump presidency. This will be a stark contrast to the recent M&A environment which has been sluggish, largely due to high interest rates, soaring company valuations, and a tight regulatory environment.
The end-of-election uncertainty means the M&A environment has significant tailwinds. Recent interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve will also likely serve as further catalysts for M&A in the coming year by lowering the cost of capital for public companies and private equity firms to finance investments. The ingredients for a very active M&A market will be present in 2025, assuming interest rates drop and corporate tax rates drop. Even amid policy uncertainty surrounding the next Trump presidency, there’s evidence smaller companies are well-positioned as price/earnings ratios look attractive relative to large-cap companies. Although higher interest rates and small caps leading are not typically aligned, in the current regime, these two can co-exist.
David Rosenstrock, CFP®, MBA, is the Director and Founder of Wharton Wealth Planning. He earned his MBA from the Wharton Business School and B.S. in economics from Cornell University. He is also a CERTIFIED FINANCIAL PLANNER™.