Since the start of a correction in Gold in September 2011 the iShares Silver Trust (SLV) followed all swings in the Gold ETF (GLD) only with the bigger relative amplitude, outperforming GLD on the upside and under-performing on the downside.
The relative strength of SLV against GLD is shown in the upper indicator window.
After the huge GLD surge on Friday it would be logical to expect SLV to follow based on the SLV performance of the last months. However, it looks like this time SLV has a mind of its own. SLV is continuing to vacillate in an ascending triangle from the second half of May and in no rush for the upward breakout.
Here we can dispute whether SLV is forming an ascending or symmetrical triangle. Personally, I am leaning toward an ascending triangle based on the short-term P&F chart with a box size of $0.25, which filters noise if the price move is less than $0.25. 
According to Thomas Bulkowski ascending triangles break out to the upside 70% of the time, but since SLV is in the short-term downtrend from March, the odds of the downward breakout are still high. Contracting Bollinger Bands predict an inevitable thrust and an initial price target after this triangle breakout is $30 on the upside and $25 on the downside.
Disclaimer: I express only my personal opinion on the market and do not provide any trading or financial advice (see Disclaimer on my site).
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Silver ETF Is Stuck In An Ascending Triangle
Published 06/05/2012, 01:38 AM
Updated 07/09/2023, 06:31 AM
Silver ETF Is Stuck In An Ascending Triangle
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