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Short-Term Currency Outlook: November 26, 2012

Published 11/26/2012, 02:46 AM
Updated 05/14/2017, 06:45 AM
EUR/USD
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GBP/USD
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USD/JPY
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F
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EUR/USD
<span class=EUR/USD" title="EUR/USD" width="600" height="600">
EUR/USD:

1.2972

Short-Term Trend: Uptrend

Outlook: I thought wave (F) of the Diametric formation from the July 2008 top was going to develop as a Flat pattern and that was the reason I expected a decline toward 1.2500 and below last week. But the last week's rally signals the structure of the suspected wave (F) will be different (not clear yet) and it seems the larger uptrend from the July 2012 low has already resumed. If correct, gains toward 1.3520 will be seen in the next couple of months. With this in mind I favor the long side here against the 1.2670 key Fibonacci level....

Strategy: Longs favored at 1.2870. Stop=1.2670. Target=1.35000

GBP/USD
<span class=GBP/USD" title="GBP/USD" width="600" height="600">
GBP/USD: 1.6025

Short-Term Trend: Weak uptrend

Outlook: The last week's strong rally suggests wave D is already over and if that's the case, wave E of the suspected Neutral Triangle from June's low is already under way. Thus, one can favor the long side. The problem however is that I do not expect a huge upmove from here. My upside target is just above the 1.6300 level. So, I personally prefer to stay neutral.

On the downside, below 1.5880 negates, signals wave D is still under way....

Strategy: Stand aside.

USD/JPY
<span class=USD/JPY" title="USD/JPY" width="600" height="600">
USD/JPY: 82.38

Short-Term Trend: Uptrend

Outlook: USD has continued its move higher and thus further confirms our long-term bullish idea here. Now, what we need, is a firm move above 83.800/84.10 area. Once we see such a move, the weekly chart will become positive as well (now the weekly chart is still neutral as long as below 84.10).

On the downside, the 80.60 level should provide strong support if a pullback develops from here. If the prices move back below 80.60, that will negate the afore-said bullish idea.

Strategy: Holding long from 81.30 is favored. Stop=80.30.

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