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Short-Term Currency Outlook: January 28, 2013

Published 01/28/2013, 12:29 AM
Updated 05/14/2017, 06:45 AM
EUR/USD
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GBP/USD
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USD/JPY
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ENI
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Main analysis

EUR/USD
EURUSD
EUR/USD:

1.3462

Short-Term Trend: Uptrend

Outlook: After spending a couple of weeks in a small sideways consolidation below 1.3400, EUR/USD broke out last week. Thus, our bullish view has been confirmed. The uptrend remains very strong and gains toward 1.3720 and possibly toward 1.4045 are expected in February. On the downside, only a move below the 1.3260 level will negate this bullish outlook and will signal a deeper pullback toward 1.3000. With this in mind, we can raise the stop to just below 1.3260.

Strategy: Holding long from 1.3320 is favored against 1.3250. Target=1.3720.

GBP/USD
<span class=GBP/USD" title="GBP/USD" width="1594" height="745">
GBP/USD: 1.5795

Short-Term Trend: Downtrend

Outlook: The decline is not as fast as we wanted, but still the prices have broken below the 1.5820 chart support and we can now confirm the completion of wave E (and therefore wave (E) as well) on the chart above. The next potential support can be expected at 1.5680 and then comes the very important 1.5260 level (honestly I don't see much support between 1.5260 and 1.5680). On the upside, a move abv 1.5945/1.6000 is unlikely at this stage but only above 1.6100 will negate our bearish case....

Strategy: Holding short from 1.6170 is favored. Stop=1.6110.

USD/JPY
<span class=USD/JPY" title="USD/JPY" width="1594" height="745">
USD/JPY: 90.87

Short-Term Trend: uptrend

Outlook: There was a small dip earlier in the week, but then USD resumed its strong uptrend vs JPY again and made new highs for this bull market. The daily chart remains in very strong uptrend but the market is also quite overbought. But overbought does not mean sell, so it is stupid if one tries to short this market now (take a look at the chart and you will see that's a suicide). So we can expect higher prices twd 92.00 and 93.12 in the coming week or so.

On the downside, a move below 88.00 will signal that a correction of recent strong gains has finally started. From a trading perspective, we had been long for quite a long time but then were stopped out at 87.80 a couple of weeks ago. Now, the trend is higher but it doesn't seem reasonable to re-enter this market at the current levels.

Strategy: Stand aside.

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