EUR/USD
EUR/USD" title="EUR/USD" width="1594" height="745">EUR/USD:
1.3186
Short-Term Trend: Uptrend
Outlook: After some consolidation below the 1.3195 Fibonacci level, EUR broke above there and rallied to 1.3307 last week. But then it retreated on Thursday and Friday. Still, it is above the previous chart's resistance (now support) at 1.3135/25, so the daily uptrend is considered strong. And the wave structure still suggests an impulsive rise in wave C. If correct, the market should resume its advance this week and head toward 1.3520 level. On the downside, sustained trading below 1.3125 negates this view and signals the last week's upside breakout has failed....
Strategy: Holding long from 1.3150 is favord. Stop=1.3090.
GBP/USD
GBP/USD" title="GBP/USD" width="1594" height="745">
GBP/USD: 1.6168
Short-Term Trend: Sideways
Outlook: As you know I have been expecting a rally above 1.6300 level for months. And finally we got that rally last week when the pair printed a high at 1.6306. Ideally my upside target was 1.6380, but nevertheless the minimum requirement was filled. And the sharp retreat on Thursday and Friday suggests an important top has likely been formed already.
To confirm this view we need a decline below 1.6000 before the end of the year. The daily trend is considered sideways and the daily oscillators are overbought. These factors together with the wave structure tell me to favor the short side here. The confidence is not very high, but this is what I see now....
Strategy: Shorts favored here against 1.6350.
USD/JPY
USD/JPY" title="USD/JPY" width="1594" height="745">
USD/JPY: 84.24
Short-Term Trend: Uptrend
Outlook: Last Monday USD/JPY finally broke above the 84.16 level. As you know I expected to see a sharp move higher after this breakout. Well, this has not occured yet. But the price pattern is quite constructive as the pair has traded above the key Fibonacci level at 83.80 for the past several days. So, ideally the uptrend from the September 2012 low will continue to extend higher in the next few weeks.
The next important target is at 87.40. On the downside, below 82.80 negates and signals the upside breakout last week was a failure.
Strategy: Holding long from 81.30 is favored. Stop=82.40