September Report Affected By Extreme Weather Conditions

Published 10/03/2017, 02:08 AM

We expect the jobs report for September due on Friday will show below trend progress in labour market due to hurricanes Harvey and Irma.

We expect employment rose 90,000 in September (although uncertainty is higher than usual) against 12-month moving average of 175,000.

We expect markets to mainly look at average hourly earnings and not so much nonfarm payrolls and unemployment, unless they surprise on the upside.

It is also worth noting that the Fed has explicitly stated that they do not expect the impact of hurricanes Harvey and Irma to play a role in their monetary policy decisions - we still expect a December hike despite a likely weak report.

To read the entire report Please click on the pdf File Below:

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