Sentiments Improved With ECB's Easing Hints

Published 01/22/2016, 04:10 AM
Updated 03/09/2019, 08:30 AM
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Global stock markets staged a strong rebound as sentiments were lifted by ECB's hint of further easing. Nikkei rose as much as 941 pts or 5.88% today to 16958.53, just missing 17000 mark. Hong Kong HSI is also up more than 3.1%. Nonetheless, the rebound in US equities overnight were rather weak, with DJIA up 0.74% or 115.9 pts only. Recovery in crude oil also helped sentiments as WTI is now back above 30, and breached 31 earlier today. In the currency markets, commodity currencies are the biggest winner as helped by receding risk aversion while yen suffered. However, with all the talks about euro's selloff, it's just staying in recently established range against dollar and yet to have a breakout.

ECB's January meeting was more dovish than expected. While affirming that the monetary and unconventional easing measures implemented since mid-2014 have been effective, policymakers unanimously agreed that the macroeconomic backdrop has changed since the beginning of this year. As suggested in the accompanying statement, "downside risks have increased again amid heightened uncertainty about emerging market economies' growth prospects, volatility in financial and commodity markets, and geopolitical risks". Eurozone's "inflation dynamics also continue to be weaker than expected" and should "remain at very low or negative levels in the coming months and to pick up only later in 2016". As such, the central bank judged that it is "necessary to review and possibly reconsider" the monetary policy stance at the March meeting. More in ECB Signals Further Easing March, As Inflation Dynamics Deteriorated Significantly.

As for today, PMI data will be the main focus. Japan PMI manufacturing dropped to 52.4 in January. Eurozone will release both PMI manufacturing and services. UKK will release retail sales and public sector net borrowing. Canada will release retail sales and CPI. Canadian dollar staged a rebound following BoC statement and oil recovery. reactions in Loonie to the data would likely be muted. US will release existing home sales and leading indicators.

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