Selling Mini Wheat

Sell 571 3/4 stop.  Protective stop 603.  Potential projection 500.

Reasons for the Trade:
1.  On the monthly chart wheat violated the 600 support this month.
2.  The monthly has a previous sell signal that is still intact.
3.   On the weekly chart wheat violated the 150 day ma over three weeks ago.  Attempts to rally back over it continue to fail.
4.  The weekly has a previous sell that is still intact.
5.  The macd is negative on all three charts.
6.  The daily chart has a previous sell that is still intact.
7.  The daily is in a downtrend and appears to be in the process of a fourth wave down.

Sell March orange juice.  Sell 160.70 stop.  Protective stop 164.60.  Potential projection 154.00 gap.
Reasons for the Trade:
1.  The monthly chart is triggering a sell this month.
2.  The weekly chart has a previous sell signal that is still intact.
3.  The weekly chart violated the 20 day ma this week.  That is negative and usually the first red flag for further sell-off.
4.  The macd is negative on all three charts.
5.  On the daily chart OJ violated the 20, 100, and 150 day ma within the last week.  That is negative.
6.  On the daily chart today's rally was stopped by the 150 day ma.
7.  Today was an outside day that can trigger a signal and market direction.

Sell January mini crude oil.  Sell 93.100 stop.  Protective stop 96.05.  Potential projection 89.75.
Reasons for the Trade:
1.  The monthly chart appears to be forming a 1,2,3 top formation.  
2.  The monthly chart is selling off from the 100.00 major resistance.
3.  The monthly chart violated the uptrend formed since the Feb. 2009 in August.  The recent rally that started in October failed to get back over it.
4.  The weekly chart formed a key reversal top in November.  
5.  The macd is negative on both long term charts.
6.  On the daily chart crude violated and failed to rally back over the uptrend formed since the October low.  
7.  On the daily chart crude failed the 20 day ma in early December.  Attempts to rally over it failed.
8.  On the daily chart crude failed the 95.00 support and 150 day ma this week.

GRAIN COMMENTS:  

MAR CORN:  I shorted corn today as it made another low (576 1/4).  The next key price in corn is 572 1/4.  That was the low on the weekly in early October.  That low also triggered a key reversal bottom on the same chart as well as the monthly.  If that is taken out, expect corn to head for 500.  As mentioned before it has already violated the 20 day ma on the weekly.  That is a red flag for more to come and has been a consistent pattern in market after market.  To add "weight" to that possibility is the violation of the 20 day ma on the monthly this month. Keep stops at 606 1/2.  Closed 579, down 1 3/4.
Position:  Short 579 1/2 (12.15).
Projection:  500.

MAR MINI WHEAT:  It made a new low but barely at 577 1/4 today.  Rallies have consistently been stopped by the 20 day ma on the daily chart.  Right not that intersects at approximately 602.  Since August on the monthly chart, each monthly high has been less than the last and each low more than the last.  That is negative.  A trade could be developing.  See Trade Alert for details.  Closed 579 1/4, down 1 1/2.

JAN MINI BEANS:  On the daily chart they sure look like they may try to rally.  They do persist in holding at the 1100 support.  That may occur but based on the weekly the follow through sure looks limited.  They have the 150 day ma hovering right above them.  And the weekly is triggering a sell this week.  On the daily they have been held back by the 20 day ma since they violated it in late October.  I'd rather watch and see how this evolves.  Closed 1111 3/4, up 11 3/4.
 
JAN MEAL:  It is the only one in the bean complex that has any potential because of the long term major support it is in.   If beans were in the same position they would be at 1000 - not 1100.  There is support at 1100 but not in comparison to 1000.  Bean oil would be at 40.00.  So it will be interesting to see what meal can do.  Closed 282.90, up .70.
 
JAN BEAN OIL:  I sold it yesterday.  So far it is not following through.   Keep stops at 50.30.  Closed 48.98, up .58.
Position:  Short 48.68 (12.14).
Projection:  46.50.

MEAT COMMENTS:
 
FEB HOGS:  I have had mixed feelings on the hogs.  Even though both long term charts had sell signals it has been confusing because they are on support long term.  Adding to that concern is that on the daily chart they were in good support too.  But today they triggered a sell on the daily from yesterday's outside day.  But they will hit support at 85.00.  Today's low 85.35.  Also the current wave down on the daily chart has met projections.  So what is the potential?  I prefer to watch.  Closed 85.50, down .82.
 
FEB CATTLE:  I sold them yesterday and was stopped out today.  Today's action looked like a classic "get the stops" and then sell off.  They did close higher but barely.  Just watching.  Closed 119.15, up .37.
Position:  Short 118.27 (12.14).  Exit 119.45 (12.15).  Loss $527 (+comm/fees).
 
SOFTS:
 
MAR COTTON:  On the daily chart it looks a bit oversold.  On the weekly chart cotton has reached the high end of some long term support.  It might try to rally to 90.00 to retrace but I don't see much more than that.  The late November key reversal bottom was taken out this Monday and that should push cotton down at 80.00 as a target.  Closed 86.29, up 1.17.
 
JAN ORANGE JUICE:  I tried to short it today.  The price was not reached.  I will try again tomorrow.  See Trade Alert for details.  Closed 162.80, down .85.
 
MAR COFFEE:  It made a new low today at 216.55.  It is slowly heading towards the projection I had some time ago at 200.00.  Considering the size of the descending triangle, it should not have much trouble reaching that.  It has the "weight" of over two months above it to push it towards that.  It may "test" that breakout but it should not do much more.  A test could push it up to 225.00 to 230.00.  Closed 217.75, down .25.

MAR COCOA:  The recent rally formed a key reversal top and outside day yesterday.  It triggered a sell today.  I am watching closely where this leads to.  Will this be a test of the contract low (19.83) that holds to eventually produce a more extensive rally?  It is too early to tell but 20.00 is long term support and the weekly is trying to form a key reversal bottom.  Closed 21.51, down 29.

MAR SUGAR:  It triggered a sell yesterday and made a new low today at 22.62.  Keep stops at 23.62.  Closed 22.75, down 9.
Position:  Short 22.97 (12.14).
Projection:  20.20.

METALS COMMENTS:

MAR COPPER:  This week it failed the 150 day ma on the weekly and triggered a sell.  Any rallies since late October have been stopped by the 100 day ma and the last three weeks the 20 day ma on the weekly.  I have mentioned for some time the potential projection to 300.00 in copper.  Further technical damage continues to support that potential.  That area will be critical as the weekly formed a key reversal bottom from that level in early October.  If that is negated, copper will probably try for 250.00.  The daily is trying to hold 325.00 currently.  However, if the Oct. 28 high appears to have established a downtrend again, the current sell-off could have a projection under 325.00 to 315.00.  Closed 326.70, down .115.
 
FEB MINI GOLD:  Since my last report the technical damage has mounted.  On Tuesday it had failed the 150 day ma but managed to almost close on it.  The very next day it continued to sell off and made a low today at 1562.50.  The failure of the 150 day ma this time is very different than when it occurred in late September.  At that time it recovered and closed above it the same day and held it until this week. This is a good example of how you have to observe how a market reacts when it does certain things.  That tells a lot.  The action by the market this time tells you it is much weaker and will probably see more follow through.   And just as important is the low in late September at 1543.30.  If it takes that out it will be confirming a second wave down since the 1925.10 high in September.  Since January 2009 gold on the monthly chart has held the 10 day ma during the entire rally - without fail.  This month it violated it for the first time.  That is a red flag.  The weekly has a sell signal and continues to suggest a 1,2,3 top formation.  The macd's are very negative.  Bottom line gold is getting very close to suggesting a 1400.00 target by its behavior.  A potential rally to the 1650.00 level could be are area to short.  Watching closely.  Closed 1577.20, down 9.70.
 
MAR MINI SILVER:  On the daily chart the last key reversal bottom was Oct. 5.  That low was 28.500.  That was taken out today and silver formed another key reversal bottom but not as aggressive.  So it is trying to hold that area.  Since it has established a downtrend since the Oct. 28 high on the daily chart and has met the potential projection, we could get a rally.  It would be one to short.  One factor that could support that is the weekly is holding at the 100 day ma.  However, the monthly is triggering a sell and violated the 20 day ma this month.  Plus their macd's are negative.  This combination of technicals suggests the possibility of a near term rally but I would not take it for more than that.  Closed 29.274, up .339.
 
 
ENERGY, CURRENCIES, FINANCIALS:
 
JAN MINI CRUDE OIL:  I attempted to short it on Tuesday but it rallied instead.  I came very close to recommending a sell the next day but decided not to because the risk would be too much.  Big mistake!!!  It collapsed and made a low today at 93.31.  It violated the 150 day ma in the process but is trying to hold.  It also closed under the 95.00 support.  I will try to short it tomorrow.  See Trade Alert for details.  Closed 93.87, down 1.08.
 
MAR MINI JAPANESE YEN:  I shorted it yesterday.  It has not followed through.  Keep stops at 129.120.  Closed 128.67, up .28.
Position:  Short 128.310 (12.14).
Projection:  126.000.
 
MAR SWISS FRANC:  It formed a key reversal bottom today.  I would say it is a bit oversold and would not be surprised if it forms an interim rally to the 108.00 area.  Since long term the technicals are negative that could give a shorting opportunity.  Closed 106.55, up 1.37.
 
MAR DOLLAR INDEX:  The positive long term situation that I went over last time has not changed.  Based on the weekly this wave up should reach 82.000.  The current wave up on the weekly has projections to 83.300.  It is hanging round 81.000 and that is pushing into some long term resistance.  It could back off and test 80.000.  If so it should be an opportunity to buy.  Closed 80.992, down .297.
 
MAR MINI EUROCURRENCY:   The current wave down on the daily chart has not met projections.  It is trying to hold 130.000.  Move stops from 132.550 down to 130.860.  Closed 130.25, up .31.
Position:  Short 130.940 (12.13).
Projection:  120.000.
 
MAR CANADIAN DOLLAR:  Last time I mentioned that it had some support at 96.000.  It has been attempting to hold that for the last two days.  It has a gap down at 95.08 that it should eventually reach.  Closed 96.35, up .43.
 
MAR AUSTRALIAN DOLLAR:  Its attempt to hold the 98.00 support today makes me suspect it will try to rally more.  Plus the inter day chart suggests the potential for more rally.  I took profit and will wait to short again.
Position:  Short 99.39 (12.13).  Exit 98.27 (12.15).  Profit $1065 (-comm/fees).

MAR E-MINI S&P:   It failed the 150 day ma on the daily chart on Tuesday.  It failed the 20 day ma yesterday.  It already has a sell signal but is trying to hold at 1200.00.  The 100 day ma intersects at 1194.00 approximately.  If it fails that, expect a test of 1150.00.  Closed 1211.75, up 5.50.
 
MAR 10 YR. NOTES:  They finally broke out of their range to the upside and closed above it with continued follow through today.  Of course, they then had to form a key reversal top today.  Is this breakout a false one?  Could be.  Their high in September was 131.300 and that created a huge correction.  Watching closely.  Closed 131.155, down .040.