In Sweden we are particularly interested to see how industrial production fares (Friday 08:30) following the very strong reading in November. We need to see a continuation of that trend in December to feel comfortable with our rather optimistic call on GDP growth in Q4 (0.8% q/q). Other outcomes of interest during the week are Manufacturing (Monday at 08:30 CET) and Services PMI (Wednesday at 08:30 CET) and, not least, manufacturing orders (Friday at 09:30 CET).
In Norway the coming week brings January data for the PMI and December data for industrial production. Given the strong Q4 business tendency data, we believe the downside risk is limited and predict a rise in the PMI to 52.5 and an increase in industrial production of 0.4% m/m.
On Tuesday Dnmark's Nationalbank is set to publish January's currency reserve figures. EUR/DKK has traded above the central rate and perhaps close to intervention levels the past couple of weeks: hence, it cannot be ruled out that DN has needed to step into the market in January to support DKK.
Also on Tuesday the Danish Debt Management Office (DMO) will hold a tap auction of DGB 2.5% Nov. 2016 and the DGB 1.5% Nov. 2023. We recommend to buy both bonds.
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