In Sweden, the week ahead kicks off on Monday morning (at 09.30 CEST) with August retail sales, where we would be surprised not to see continued low y/y growth as most indicators for the retail sector seem to have lost much of the momentum over the past few weeks.
On Wednesday (at 08.30 CEST), we will receive another bout of survey data in the form of manufacturing PMI and finally the week concludes with what we feel might be among the most important numbers to keep up with Swedish domestic cyclical developments, industrial production and orders (Friday, 09.30 CEST).
The Swedish debt office will this week tap SEK1.75bn in both the Jun '22 and May '25 SGB. We expect decent demand at the auctions.
In Norway, the most important releases are retail sales figures for August and PMI and NAV unemployment data for September.
In particular, for the FX market the announcement regarding FX transactions in October by Norges Bank could also be interesting, although we do not expect Norges Bank to purchase Norwegian kroner in the market before November.
In Denmark, Danmarks Nationalbank (DN) is scheduled to publish September's FX reserve. The market will keep a close eye on the release to see if DN has responded to the steep decline in EUR/DKK since late August and made FX intervention purchases. If DN has made FX intervention purchases, an independent rate cut has certainly moved closer.
We also take a closer look at our updated macro forecasts for Denmark, Sweden and Norway.
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