The main event in Sweden is the Riksbank meeting (Tuesday at 09:30 CEST), where we expect a cut to 0.1% (unchanged corridor) or 0.05% (a decreased interval) but that should not make much of a difference. Since a cut is already by and large priced in, we do not expect a strong market reaction should a cut be the only change.
However, we also believe that the Riksbank will postpone its first rate hike into H2 16 and introduce a very soft rhetoric.
Short term, we expect to see a move higher in EUR/SEK and we see value in selling SEK 2016 FRAs.
We expect decent demand at the SGB auction on Thursday given the soft Riksbank and the supply situation for SGBs.
In Norway, we will see the release of the business tendency survey for Q3, retail sales data for September and jobless figures from the Norwegian Labour and Welfare Administration (NAV) for October. Finally, we expect Norges Bank to announce that it will continue to buy kroner at a rate of NOK250m daily in November.
In Denmark, the week brings news from the labour market, with Statistics Denmark releasing jobless figures for September. The week will also tell us more about the mood in industry with manufacturing confidence data for October. Finally, the Nationalbank will release securities statistics and figures for foreign portfolio investments for September.
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