This issue covers both this week and the week after Easter. Note that we update our FX forecasts for EUR/SEK and EUR/NOK.
In Sweden, the next two weeks contain few interesting sets of data, with NIER data on business and consumer confidence (both on Wednesday 23 March at 09:00 CET). Then 15 minutes later, the NIER publishes its outlook for the Swedish economy. The week after Easter, we receive trade balance data (Tuesday 29 March at 09:30 CEST), which we expect to rise a little, and retail sales data, which should come down somewhat.
Apart from data, there are developments over the next couple of weeks that will be extremely interesting to follow: the large wage negotiation round must be concluded before 31 March 31. If it is not, strikes and so on will follow. We expect a low outcome - below 2.5 % y/y - and little wage drift, which is below the Riksbank forecast.
In Norway, there are some important releases in the week after Easter. February retail sales will send important signals about whether higher unemployment and lower wage growth are now hitting private consumption. We expect retail sales to climb 0.2% m/m, which would mean private consumption making a solid contribution to GDP growth again in Q1. Also coming up are PMI data for March. It will be interesting to see whether the start-up of work on Johan Sverdrup and slightly higher global industrial activity give manufacturers somewhat less of a headwind. Following the Norges Bank meeting, we expect another rate cut from Norges Bank in June.
In Denmark, the statistical office will publish consumer confidence for March and employment for January next Monday. We also expect employment to increase further this year but with the relatively strong employment growth to date having been accompanied by much weaker economic growth, it may well be that the rate of increase in employment slows somewhat. We estimate around 3,000 jobs were created in January.
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