In Sweden , manufacturing PMI is likely to stay at 60 as suggested by the recent convergence of the NIER manufacturing confidence indicator. However, services PMI appears set for a downward correction.
December budget figures from ESV (Budget Management Office) with details about tax revenues will also be interesting. The Debt Office's December figures were a significant surprise showing a much smaller borrowing requirement than expected. Unless ESV figures suggest that tax flows may reverse in coming months, the stage is set for yet another big revision to the Debt Office's funding plans for 2018.
In Norway , we believe the week's most important release is NAV's unemployment figures for January. We expect gross unemployment to resume its previous path - after a weaker December - and fall by 1,200 people m/m in January, with the unemployment rate climbing to 2.8% for seasonal reasons.
We estimate retail sales fell 0.5% m/m in December, fuelling speculation that the housing market is taking consumer spending down with it. We still do not believe this to be the case, given that (a) consumption of services is performing much better than retail sales, (b) consumer confidence is still rising and (c) car sales in December were at their highest since May 1986.
In Denmark , business confidence data are released on Tuesday. On Friday, we will get figures for construction activity in 2017, including housing starts and housing completions.
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