Sweden is set to release inflation data on Thursday at 09:30 CET. It has been a while since our near-term inflation forecast has been higher than the Riksbank's but this is now the case. This may sound worse than it actually is, however, as our forecasts for both CPIF and CPIF excluding energy are close to the Riksbank's until early summer 2016. Beyond that point, our forecasts are much lower than the Riksbank's. We are now positioned for a 5Y10Y steepener in SGBs or swaps and we recommend to buy 5Y SEK covered bonds. The Swedish National Debt Office will tap in the 8Y and 10Y segment this week .
In Norway inflation (due on Tuesday) has faded into the background as a result of the considerable patience Norges Bank displayed in September with respect to the temporary currency-driven rise in consumer prices. Wage growth will slow as unemployment climbs, so inflation will gradually recede once the exchange rate effect fades. We do not expect any big changes in the October data but still expect core inflation up at 3.1% y/y. NGBs have underperformed recently both against swaps and Germany. On Wednesday Norges Bank will probably tap in the 8Y or 9Y segment. The auction might offer an opportunity to go long NGBs at an attractive level. However, look out for the NOK that could still come under pressure in December due to the weak liquidity in the Norwegian market ahead of year-end.
Statistics Denmark is due to release a variety of interesting data in the coming week. We expect Tuesday's inflation numbers to show prices rising 0.1% m/m and 0.5% y/y in October.
We recommend to go long 10Y DGB against Germany as 1) the Danish market is set to be awash with cash soon due to coupons and redemption of more than DKK80bn on 15 November, 2) the Danish central bank might soon be forced to sell DKK in the market to weaken the currency and 3) the long end of the DGB curve has not rallied like the front end recently.
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