Russell 2000: What Small Caps' January Trend Could Signal About Market

Published 01/16/2025, 02:22 AM
XAU/USD
-
HG
-
SI
-
CL
-
SB
-
ZC
-
IWM
-

Don’t get too excited about the lagging indicators; instead, focus on the present and future.

Most instruments are still in the January trading range, and we do not yet know what will be clear and what will fail.

Today, for example, the indices have rallied into resistance and the January trend trade is alive. IWM-Daily Chart

In fact, at the time of writing, QQQ and SPY (barely) had cleared the 50-DMA, but small caps IWM and DIA have not.

IWM rallied to the January 6th high, so look at how the stars will align.

The January trend trade sets on Thursday. It’s so exciting.

Nonetheless, most of the key sectors also remain below their 50 DMAs.

However, on the weekly charts, as I have written about recently, everything remains in a bull phase except IBB Biotechnology.

The bigger news of the day: Quantum Day) announced by Jensen Huang, which sent the beat-up Quantum stocks soaring.

I have recently mentioned QUBT as a fave. That was up 54% at one point today.

What Else Is Rallying Beside Stocks?

Banks did it again many believe they will continue to outshine with a soft landing--but is that still the case?

CPI and PPI numbers may have come out softer, but the Empire ISM numbers show not only a shrinkage in productivity but also that prices paid reached an 8-month high, while the outlook for the next 6 months is at 2-year highs.

Yes, markets are happy as yields and the dollar softened, but what else is rallying?

Silver, Gold, Oil, Corn, Copper, and Coffee.

Only Sugar, my main inflation barometer outside of the silver to gold ratio, is up, but not up this year.

Sugar, as shown in the weekly chart, has broken down under the 200-WMA for the first time since December 2020. However, it is holding the August 2024 low. Sugar-Weekly Chart

Sugar has been my go-to barometer for years.

ETF Summary

(Pivotal means short-term bullish above that level and bearish below)

  • S&P 500 (SPY) Scraped the 50-DMA-needs more
  • Russell 2000 (IWM) 220 now support 227 resistance to clear
  • Dow (DIA (BME:DIDA)) 435 the 50-DMA
  • Nasdaq (QQQ) 514 must hold to confirm bull phase
  • Regional banks (KRE) 60 must hold 
  • Semiconductors (SMH) Cleared the 50-DMA now must hold
  • Transportation (IYT) Nice pop right up to but not thru the 50-DMA
  • Biotechnology (IBB) 135 to clear  
  • Retail (XRT) 79 pivotal  
  • iShares iBoxx Hi Yd Cor Bond ETF (HYG) Here is where we find the biggest risk on look

Latest comments

Loading next article…
Risk Disclosure: Trading in financial instruments and/or cryptocurrencies involves high risks including the risk of losing some, or all, of your investment amount, and may not be suitable for all investors. Prices of cryptocurrencies are extremely volatile and may be affected by external factors such as financial, regulatory or political events. Trading on margin increases the financial risks.
Before deciding to trade in financial instrument or cryptocurrencies you should be fully informed of the risks and costs associated with trading the financial markets, carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite, and seek professional advice where needed.
Fusion Media would like to remind you that the data contained in this website is not necessarily real-time nor accurate. The data and prices on the website are not necessarily provided by any market or exchange, but may be provided by market makers, and so prices may not be accurate and may differ from the actual price at any given market, meaning prices are indicative and not appropriate for trading purposes. Fusion Media and any provider of the data contained in this website will not accept liability for any loss or damage as a result of your trading, or your reliance on the information contained within this website.
It is prohibited to use, store, reproduce, display, modify, transmit or distribute the data contained in this website without the explicit prior written permission of Fusion Media and/or the data provider. All intellectual property rights are reserved by the providers and/or the exchange providing the data contained in this website.
Fusion Media may be compensated by the advertisers that appear on the website, based on your interaction with the advertisements or advertisers.
© 2007-2025 - Fusion Media Limited. All Rights Reserved.