Market movers ahead:
After the German election over the weekend, Angela Merkel is expected to continue as Chancellor, but a broad CDU/CSU-SPD coalition seems to be the most likely outcome.
We expect Chinese HSBC Flash PMI to rise further to 51.1, from 50.0 in August.
Euro Flash PMI should also rise, but the increases are expected to be more moderate going forward.
We expect US core durable goods orders to rebound following the disappointing fall last month. We expect US consumer confidence to decline.
We expect increased focus on US negotiations on the 2014 budget as 30 September deadline draws nearer.
Global macro and market themes:
With the Fed's dovish stance, the biggest tail risk for risk assets was removed this week. In combination with recovering emerging markets and the ongoing global recovery, this puts risk assets in a sweet spot, in our view.
US forward-looking indicators continue to be strong, while hard data on consumption, housing, capex and payrolls have been on the soft side.
The Fed secured a continued consolidation in the bond markets and carry trades should benefit from ample liquidity, lower volatility and lower tail risks.
The USD strengthening was postponed with the Fed announcement. However, it is still intact for 2014, when US hard data is set to get stronger.
To Read the Entire Report Please Click on the pdf File Below.
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Risks To Global Economy Coming Down Fast
Published 09/20/2013, 06:20 AM
Updated 05/14/2017, 06:45 AM
Risks To Global Economy Coming Down Fast
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