In Sweden, the week ahead kicks off with a bang, as we receive much-anticipated Q1 GDP data (Monday, at 09:30 CEST). Our point forecast remains at 4% y/y but, after a recent batch of weak data, we must profess that risks are decidedly skewed on the downside.
A couple of weeks ago we sent out what we thought would be our final estimate of Swedish Q1 GDP growth. At the time, bar production side data, our indicators pointed mostly above 4% y/y (vol., and calendar adjusted). However, with the last iteration of international trade data, we now have a clearer and unfortunately also considerably more negative view on GDP Q1, especially from the demand side of GDP. Indeed, an outcome as low as 3% would not be a surprise to us, entailing a distinct negative quarterly growth rate.
In Norway, we look forward to retail sales. We estimate a rebound in April after a couple of weak months, due partly to the problems with seasonal adjustment around Easter. We estimate an increase of 0.8% m/m.
With conflicting signals elsewhere, labour market data provide a useful cross-check for the state of the Norwegian economy. Somewhat surprisingly NAV's figures for registered unemployment (due Friday) have fallen for three months in a row, which may mean that the labour market is now recovering. Here too we expect a slight correction after Easter, with an increase of 400-500 people from April to May.
In Denmark the central bank is due to publish currency reserves data for May. The latest daily net position data points to currency intervention in support of the krone of some DKK12bn in May.
The Danish Debt Office will tap the markets on Wednesday. Once again the DMO will go for a tap in the 2018 and 2025 benchmark bonds. Demand for DGB's at the latest auctions has been rather weak and there is a risk that the same pattern will apply at the auction this week.
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