After spending the better part of two months in trade war purgatory and with G20 done and dusted, risk markets have responded to Saturday's events in a reveller tone. Indeed, investors heaved a massive, but exhausted, sigh of relief that both the U.S. and China opted to push the reset button and restart trade negotiations amidst other pleasantries – now we'll have to see, whether it all sticks.
G20 ended as well as anyone expected and, fortunately, we were spared any unpleasant surprises, but the biggest question on everyone's mind is will any armistice stick or will history repeat, and trade war gridlock set in.?
The markets G-20 base case scenario was doubtlessly validated if not exceed on Saturday as the U.S. will hold off raising tariffs while negotiations to end the trade war between the two countries continue, over the short term this should be enough to anchor risk sentiment in our view. But we need to let the dust settle and gauge main streets reaction since there are several key issues to iron out none more significant than China's demand for the U.S. to remove current tariffs and the enforcement mechanism, which in my view is "The Bridge too Far."
Now it's time to focus on this week's workload, and with a cluttered docket trader have plenty to digest this week besides US-trade tension Specifically, Japan's Tankan, Korean exports, and PMIs on Monday; the RBA in play on Tuesday; India's budget and U.S. non-farm payrolls out on Friday to state a few. But with 'rate cut fever" dominating investors' minds, the only thing that matter for risk is with the Fed deliver on the markets rate cut lofty expectations. So, we are back to "data watch "where this week's US ISM data will be significant to the market July Fed "rate cut fever" ambitions, even more so after U.S. consumer prices as measured by the Personal Consumption Expenditures index rose 0.2% on Friday.
Frankly, it's nice to get back to business after last week headline tease and tangle, as economic data, not headline risk will drive sentiment this week.
But at least for this morning, especially given the chatter around the street. Traders are in profit taking and fade mode, especially after the unwinding of downside risk, has given the markets and extra boost.
So, until there is more evidence or even a blueprint to trade détente success, given the comprehensive list of demand from both sides of the table, it not only suggests a bridge too far, but underlying sentiment remains quite bearish in terms of the medium-term outlook for a US-China trade deal as well the global growth outlook.
Oil Markets
Oil Prices should surge this morning feast on a double-barrelled dose of bullish news from the G-20 after Russian President confirmed the supply deal extension was done for six months but could be as much as 9. Saudi Energy Minister Khalid al-Falih supported this view said the deal would most likely be extended by nine months and no deeper reductions were needed
This optimistic news triggered and immediate of unwinding G-20 and OPEC meeting tail risk premiums especially the later as OPEC+ uncertainty was building Friday when there was energetic chatter making the rounds suggesting that the Russian Oil Barons were aggressively lobbying in opposition to the extension.
With the G-20 double whammy of positivity to feast on, Oil bulls are stampeding higher the open still riding the momentum of rising geopolitical tensions, and a tighter market conditions amidst evidence that U.S. oil inventories are falling.
Gold Markets
With risk flashing green at the open, gold prices gapped lower at the open as price action is tethered to the hip of equity markets and risk sentiment but fell well short of testing significant support at t$1375.
Although there was a breakthrough in negotiations around Huawei, the markets remain circumspect to whether the broader investment community will view G-20 as an absolute success.
So, while the post-G-20 risk boost has undercut Gold prices but at the opening move lower was likely exaggerated by COMEX stops in thin liquidity. So, while we will monitor the integrity of the long gold position clear out, with so much global uncertainties Gold should continue to prove safe have relief in these challeni9ng times. support $1375 $1340 resistance $1400 $1420
Forex Markets
Euro
Despite all the hoopla about the USD on its death throes, the EURUSD had its smallest weekly trading range last week since its launch. If you need farther evidence that central banks continue to squeeze the life out of currency markets look no further than that fact, I'm talking 1067 weeks of data!!
6/28/2019 1.1412 -1.1344 last 1.1374 .0068 weekly range. No wonder everyone is trading EMFX
Yen
Big gap at the open as the market unwind downside gamma exposure and whatever remnants of G20 fall out hedge. Liquidity was predictably thin a at 5 AM Singapore and likely exacerbated the move, so we sold some USDJPY clips on the opening salvo widely expecting the reversions to set in ahead of Japan's Tankan
"Yuan Yuatch "
Delaying tariffs and hitting the trade talk reset button means we will stay below 7 for the time being, which is directly in line with the market's consensus. If discussions remain amicable, we would expect the USDCNH to gradually move towards 6.75 and possibly to 6.60 if a trade agreement is reached.
For immediate concerns, I would expect the USD to weaken against the RMB, and ASEAN currency, which is consistent with the trade war relief long USD unwind that enveloped sentiment of the past few weeks. But I expect the USD sell-off versus ASEAN currencies to accelerate, especially with the markets tacking towards an aggressive Fed easing bias.
The biggest fear I have about going all in on the Long CNH trade is the range of issues that need to be ironed out and since delaying tariff is only a reprieve, if tensions suddenly escalate again, we could have an intense move higher in USDCNH.
But with that said I'm off the stairway to 7(USDCNH) bandwagon as I do believe the U.S. administration is embarking on a weaker USD policy while the dovish Fed should continue to dent U.S. dollar demand
Also, with ongoing trade discussions, I think China's counter-cyclical F.X. policy will become more biased towards a stronger Yuan. After the U.S. administration raised tariffs on USD200bn of goods to 25%, the market was convinced USDCNH would knock on 7 USDCNH doors, but the Pboc drew a definitive line in the sand and kept USDCNY fixing below 6.90, well below our modelled expectation and the clearest signal to get out of long USD positions.
I think the Yuan fix is of no lesser importance after both sides agreed to hit the trade talk reset button, so we remain on *Yuan Yuatch."