Main takeaways
The devil is in the detail. As shown in the table on the right, the Riksbank has cut GDP growth slightly and raised its CPIF inflation forecast by a tenth. However, in our view the really interesting part is not visible in this table. As the Riksbank pointed out, it has revised down core CPIF excluding energy inflation despite the SEK beings much weaker than it was assumed in its previous forecast. In essence, this probably boils down to a significant downward revision of domestic inflation (which is mostly services), while, in our view, it probably revised imported inflation up (SEK impact, see higher year-end inflation in chart). This largely resembles what we have been arguing for a long time: that last years rise in services inflation was the result of a high degree of 'one-offs', the effect of which is reversed this year. To put it differently, wage cost driven domestic inflation is simply too low to be consistent with 2% inflation. What concerns us is that we still believe the Riksbank is too optimistic on the outlook in 2018, mainly because it sees the impact of declining residential construction coming in 2019 and not now. We believe it will have to revise that view, as construction and GDP data arrive. The Riksbanks new repo forecast postponed the first hike until October. We believe it will have to postpone it again later this year.
Fixed income
The Riksbank adjusted the repo rate path a bit, postponing the first rate hike until the end of 2018. Usually it is hard to draw any clear conclusions about the exact timing of the first rate hike according to its path. However, given how the Riksbank normally schedules its meetings, a purely mathematical assessment suggests that the Riksbank expects a 10bp hike at the October meeting, followed by 25bp in February 2019, 10bp in July 2019 and 20bp in October 2019. This gives the best fit for the quarterly averages in the repo rate path. As already said above, be careful about making big assumptions on the back of this. For instance, it seems odd to us that the central bank should move in steps of 10bp, 25bp, 15bp and 20bp over the first year. However, one possible indication is that the Riksbank will tread carefully and start slowly with a 10bp rate hike. The market responded by sending rates lower following the announcement, with a flatter money-market curve. Moreover, the mid-segment of the yield curve outperformed. In our view, the market is sending a signal that it is becoming more and more unlikely that the Riksbank will be able to hike rates in the way the central bank anticipates today, due to a slowing economy. The longer it is before the rate is hiked, the less likely it becomes that the bank will be able to start a series of rate hikes. We keep our recommendations intact but plan to reassess our view after the ECB announcement.
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