In Sweden, we are looking forward to information about service and industrial orders, production and shipments (all due to be released on Tuesday at 09:30 CEST) and fuller data on household consumption behaviour (due to be released on Friday at 09:30 CEST). We expect no major surprise in relation to market expectations but it seems as though a new, weaker, trend is being established in industrial data, which it will be interesting to follow up on.
On Wednesday, Riksbank governor Stefan Ingves is due to deliver a speech entitled 'Time to rethink - inside the head of a central bank governor'. Judging by the title, this could be quite interesting but it is not possible to guess what he will say. However, we would be surprised if Mr Ingves were to announce that he is now prepared to rethink the policy framework altogether or even throw it overboard.
In Norway, the oil-driven downturn is most evident in the manufacturing sector. It is probably still too early to expect industrial production to start recovering and there are no signs of this in leading indicators such as the tendency survey, the regional network or the PMI. Nevertheless, we estimate moderate growth of 0.3% m/m in February, partly as a correction after the relatively steep fall in January. If we are right, it would suggest industrial production fell by just over 1% in Q1.
Norges Bank plans to sell bonds on Wednesday. We expect yet another tap in the 10Y segment. The auction details will be announced on Monday at midday.
In Denmark, the currency reserves data for March is due to be released. Reserves fell by around DKK15bn in the first two months of the year but given the latest easing by the ECB where the Nationalbank has sat tight, there is reason to believe the decline in currency reserves has all but come to an end.
The Danish Debt Management Office will tap in the usual 2Y (2018) and 10Y (2026) benchmarks on Wednesday. Demand at the last two auctions was strong, especially for the 2Y benchmark bond.
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