New research from Danske Bank
In Sweden , all eyes will be on the Riksbank's monetary policy decision and new forecasts.
We expect the Riksbank to raise the growth forecast slightly, probably for both 2017 and 2018. The inflation forecast is likely to be upped for 2017 for obvious reasons (higher outcome above that forecast for the past couple of months), but it may actually revise down 2018 slightly to the extent that it judges recent price increases to be temporary.
We expect no change to either the repo rate or the repo rate path, as the Riksbank is wary about the fact that the money market is pricing in a slightly more frontloaded repo path than the Riksbank suggests at the same time as the SEK is roughly 3% stronger than forecast in July (KIX).
The Riksbank may switch the target to CPIF, quite uncontroversially, but we doubt it will introduce a variation band as this has been criticised heavily. Either way, none of the changes would have any impact on monetary policy.
In Norway , the most important release will be the August housing prices due out on Tuesday. Prices have fallen for three successive months, driven largely by a substantial decrease in Oslo, but we also saw signs of them coming down in other cities in July.
While many are focusing on the rise in unsold properties, we will be keeping a particularly close eye on turnover, because this says something about how well observed prices are actually clearing the market. Turnover was relatively healthy in July, with a decrease in the stock-to-sales ratio, even in Oslo, despite an increase in the number of homes on the market.
In Denmark , currency reserves data will kick things off on Monday. The krone was strong against the euro in August, but not back to the levels that triggered intervention in the FX market at the beginning of the year, so the Nationalbank probably did not need to act in August.
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