The professional investors must profit by anticipating future trends and events rather than chasing old news. This is done by following the invisible hand or message of the market. That message, the simultaneous study of the the cycle of accumulation and distribution (trend), the distribution, movement, and participation of leverage (leverage), time/cycles, and human behavior void of opinions is defined below:
Heating oil, slightly past a seasonal transition, is an interesting follow.
Trend (Bullish)
A rising trend that generated a bullish crossover during the second week of February supports positive trend oscillators (chart 1). The bulls control the trend until this trend is reversed. 
Leverage (Bull Phase/Bullish Overbought)
The flow of leverage (red arrow) has defined a bull phase since November (chart 2). February's bullish crossover confirmed it (see trend). 
Heating Oil's leverage oscillators, holding below zero since January and supporting the expectation of higher price, suggest an overbought trend (chart 3). Overbought trends tend to be 'unwound' by profit-taking. 
Time/Cycle (Weakness)
The 5-year seasonal cycle defines strength until the first week of March (chart 4). After that, the path of least resistance not only turns down until July but also get more aggressive after April. This tendency has the bears watching for sign of weakness (SOW). 
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Heating Oil's Leverage Oscillators Suggest An Overbought Trend
Published 03/11/2015, 08:27 AM
Updated 07/09/2023, 06:31 AM
Heating Oil's Leverage Oscillators Suggest An Overbought Trend
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