Retail Traders Selling US Dollar In Quiet Start To Week

Quiet start to the week saw Retail Traders buying the EUR/USD and GBP/USD crosses as the primary flows were determined by large Agricultural Orders seling in EUR/GBP.

All in all, though, it was a quiet start to the week with a quiet Tuesday. German IFO could spark some initial movements in the euro crosses first thing, but otherwise a rather quiet data day as well.

EUR/USD

Long: 1.3260

RTAS Order Book systems continued to hold longs, although we started to see some Retail Buying in the pair moving our systems back closer to shorts. Resistance comes in at the 1.3560 / 13600 level with support around the 1.3470 mark.
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The pair stalled at the highs, we could see a push into the 1.3600 level, but the Retail Order Books now back at nice extremes for reversals. We could see a correctional move or a larger move lower from the pair soon. If we break the 1.3470 support level next major support comes in around the 1.3400 / 1.3390 mark.
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GBP/USD

Short: 1.5970

RTAS Order Book systems switched to shorts prior to the FOMC statement, although out of the money this pair significantly retraced on Thursday and Friday and now sits slightly out of the money as we continued to find some Retail Buyers today but stalled on the push below 1.6020. 1.6050 now key resistance level in this pair with 1.6020 support. Ideally we need to see a push past the 1.6000 level to confirm the retracement.
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The pair pulled back from the extreme overbought region towards the end of last week, we could see a further correction in the pair given the recent trend it has been on, but whilst we stay above the 1.5780 mark these would still count as correctional and the pair could easily push higher again. Key for a push higher is a hold above the 1.6050 / 1.6150 marks.
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AUD/USD

Long: 0.9425

Systems switched to shorts today booking a small profit on longs. Some minor Retail Buying at the start of the day caused the switch on a flat Retail Order Book but some minor selling late on suggests a 2am switch back to longs. Resistance comes in at the 0.9520 mark and support just below at 0.9380.
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0.9650 to 0.9800 region is the key retracement area to watch for in the AUD/USD and currently we still sit below this key level, therefore the overall Bearish trend remains intact. Overall we still like this pair for a move higher towards this resistance region.
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EUR/AUD

Short: 1.4360

The RTAS Order Book systems remained short on this pair although we started to see minor Retail Selling in the pair again suggesting we could find some support and push higher to test the 1.4460 level again.
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The pair has now managed to chop sideways whilst pushing itself out of the oversold territory and has come back off extremes in the Order Book, it is now primed for its next major move higher or lower. If we see further Retail Buying we could easily see a push lower, especially if we see Retail Buying in the EURUSD cross. Whilst we remain below the 1.4520 mark we still prefer shorts.
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EUR/GBP

Long: 0.8445
Order Book systems have chopped around at current levels with an almost perfectly flat Retail Order Book, therefore today the pair switched from shorts to longs again although got caught out by large Commercial Orders pushing the EUR/GBP lower. We have continued to see Retail selling in the pair though which could spark a nice reversal in the pair if it finds support.
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Pair finally bounced higher off of lows.Resistance comes in just above at the 0.8490/0.8500 level. So far support has held up well after several tests but we suspect the resistance level and 200 day SMA around 0.8500 to put up a strong resistance point for potential moves lower from the correctional bounce. Watch price action around the key resistance level for clues as well as the trend in Retail Order Book.
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