The 23-month moving average or a 2-year business cycle is particularly important this year after a big up then a down year looms large.
Looking at Granny Retail (S&P Retail ETF (NYSE:XRT)), that business cycle not only leaves investors with the trading range resistance, it also shows how the Retail sector could be a harbinger of worse times this spring.
On the weekly chart, though, Granny is still in the game, holding the 50 and 200-week moving averages. The Real Motion indicator flashes a divergence, however. Momentum weakens while the rice is ok.
And the Triple Play indicator has Granny underperforming the benchmark. So, the ever-important representative of US growth is stressed-albeit not broken.
Regional Banks (SPDR® S&P Regional Banking ETF (NYSE:KRE)), or our prodigal son, has a story as well.
As per the weekend Daily on the Economic Modern Fam,
“Regional Banks (KRE) sit below the 50-WMA and noteworthy, below the 50-DMA. With folks not depositing money due to high credit card debt (AND HIGHER YIELDING OPTIONs LIKE T-BILLS), and with mortgage rates so high, it is no wonder our Prodigal Son struggles?”
The higher rates on T-Bills, CDs, and other bank deposits have been attractive for consumers and businesses.
However, that is costly for the US banking industry, which is already experiencing a slowdown in lending. With banks having to raise deposit rates, bank profits could fall.
And as we know, the Regional Banks character is called Prodigal Son for this very reason: first, they (banks) hoard your capital and pay you very little interest, and then they come back asking for forgiveness.
In this case, should banks start to project larger unemployment and smaller profits, that could be the reason Fed either does a pivot or pause or raises the inflation target from 2% up to 3%.
But we are getting ahead of ourselves. Granny Retail and Prodigal Regional Banks are my key go-tos for this week. Teetering on support, they could be just fine, and low-risk buy opportunities.
But, if they fail support, take note!
ETF Summary
- S&P 500 (NYSE:SPY): 390 support with 405 pivotal 410 resistance.
- iShares Russell 2000 ETF (NYSE:IWM): 190 failed so Grandpa hurts-295 support.
- Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF Trust (NYSE:DIA): 326 support 335 resistance.
- Invesco QQQ Trust (NASDAQ:QQQ): 284 big support, 300 pivotal, 305 resistance.
- S&P Regional Banking ETF (NYSE:KRE): 60 pivotal f-closed below.
- VanEck Semiconductor ETF (NASDAQ:SMH): 240 pivotal 248 key resistance.
- iShares Transportation Average ETF (NYSE:IYT): 240 resistance and 230 support.
- iShares Biotechnology ETF (NASDAQ:IBB): 125-135 trading range.
- S&P Retail ETF (NYSE:XRT): 66 pivotal with 64 key support.