In Sweden, first out is the budget balance (Monday at 09:30 CET): not the SNDO-numbers (that do have market impact) but the once from Statistics Sweden (SCB). On Wednesday (at 09:30 CET), the SCB publishes the household consumption indicator, which is only interesting for macro-specialists such as ourselves. On Thursday the labour market board (AMS) releases the number of registered unemployed, but this number is only vaguely connected to the actual labour market situation and is not the official number (which is released by SCB). Then, to end the week, SCB publishes average house prices (Friday at 09:30 CET) which is also not very thoroughly dissected.
The Swedish Debt Office will be tapping in the 5Y and 10Y linkers.
The week's big release in Norway is Norges Bank's regional network survey. Last time around, the aggregated output index pointed to more or less zero growth over the coming six months, i.e. November to April. We reckon that the aggregated output index for the next six months will edge up from -0.01 to 0.1, which would be better than feared/expected and could dent expectations of further rate cuts after March.
We will also have Norwegian inflation data this week. The weak NOK is propping up imported inflation. Hence, core inflation is set to remain high. We forecast an annual rate of 3.1% in February, which is in line with Norges Bank's projections in the December monetary policy report.
The Norwegian debt office will tap in the government bond market this week. We expect another tap in the 10Y segment (announcement Monday).
In Denmark we expect Thursday's inflation figures for February to show prices rising 0.8% m/m and 0.4% y/y.
Otherwise, a lot of focus will of course be on how the Danish central bank will react to the expected ECB easing. We still expect the Nationalbank to mirror the 10bp rate cut expected from the ECB this week. But it could certainly also decide to leave the deposit rate unchanged, referring to the continued need for intervention in February.
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