In Sweden we get household consumption (a broader measure than retail sales) on Tuesday and labour market data on Thursday. Neither are very market moving nowadays with all focus by the Riksbank on inflation.
Swedish unemployment is slowly declining over time but we expect the trend number to hold steady this time at 7.5%. Don't be surprised to see a sharp decline in unadjusted unemployment though (we expect from 8.5% in June to 6.8% in July) - that is in line with a standard seasonal pattern.
Despite the higher outcome in July, Swedish inflation should still fall back below the Riksbank's forecasts as price movements reverse in the coming months. In addition, falling petrol prices and lower mortgage rates will add to that backdrop. We still expect a rate cut late this year in Sweden.
The main event in the Norwegian market will be the Q2 GDP numbers. We already know from the index of household consumption of goods that private consumption rose around 0.5% during the second quarter. However, the manufacturing sector is struggling with the low oil prices and weak demand. According to the industrial production data, production in manufacturing has dropped more than 5% during the quarter, so this part of the economy is feeling the headwind from the lower oil price and lower oil investments strongly. Norges Bank assumed a 0.25% q/q growth in Q2 in the June monetary policy report. Given the development in manufacturing in June, the risk is tilted to the downside for this estimate.
In the Danish market focus over the remainder of August will be on the non-callable bullet refinancing auctions kicked off by Nykredit on 17 August and set to continue through August. The auction supply is broadly in line with our expectations, though with slightly less in 1Y non-callable bullets and slightly more in 5Y non-callable bullets than initially expected.
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