- A new batch of Swedish macro data ahead.
- Our case for Swedish covered bonds is still valid.
A new batch of data
Last week has been unexciting to say the least in terms of Swedish data, or rather the lack of it. This week is different with new information due, such as the NIER businessand consumer confidence surveys, trade balance figures, GDP, household lending and retail sales.
As far as GDP (Q3) is concerned, it is true that several recent data point to weakness but we think this will primarily affect the final quarter of the year. Indeed, we believe it is a good idea to be prepared for reasonably well behaved figures for the third quarter. The trade balance for instance did show a lower (nominal) surplus compared with Q3 11 but, adjusting for prices and looking at the development on a q/q basis, foreign trade is likely to give a positive GDP contribution and this should also be the case for inventories. On the negative side, we find consumer spending where for instance car sales were pretty depressed.
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