- RBNZ is expected to announce it’s interest rate decision today, at 21:00 (GMT).
- RBNZ is widely expected to remain on hold and keep interest rates at +1.75%, currently NZD OIS imply a probability for the bank to remain on hold at 99.29%.
- Market focus could shift to the accompanying statement which given the recent financial data may keep a neutral tone.
- Special interest could be allocated to any comments regarding the GDP growth rate and as well as the picking up of the inflation rate and global trading conditions.
- We could see the USD/NZD weakening with the release and the market may have started to position itself already.
USD gains on easing trade fears
- USD gained slightly on easing trade fears against it’s major counterparts, however wariness persists.
- A remark made by president Trump about relying on alternate means to control acquisitions, signaled a less confrontational path to the markets on Tuesday.
- According to media, a spillover may occur as Canada also prepares steel import quotas and tariffs on China and other countries, in order to block steel diverted from the US.
- Should there be positive headlines about US intentions we could see the USD strengthening.
Today’s other economic highlights
- UK: Nationwide HPI for June, Survey: +1.7% yoy Prior: +2.4% yoy, 06:00 (GMT), could weaken GBP
- UK: BoE Financial Stability Report, (08:30, GMT)
- Czech Rep.: Interest Rate Decision, Survey: +0.75% Prior: +0.75%, 11:00 (GMT), CZK OIS imply a probability of 68.75% for +0.75%
- US: Durable goods orders for May, Survey: -1.0% mom Prior:-1.9% mom, 12:30 (GMT), could strengthen USD
- US: Core Durable Goods for May, Survey: +0.5% mom Prior:+0.9% mom, 12:30 (GMT), could weaken USD
- US: Pending Home Sales for May, Survey: +0.5% mom Prior: -1.3% mom, 14:00 (GMT), could support USD
- US: EIA Crude Oil Inventories, Survey: -2.572m Prior: -5.914m, 14:30 (GMT), could support oil prices
- Speakers: BoE Governor Mark Carney (08:30,GMT), FOMC members Quarles (15:00, GMT) and Rosengren (16:15, GMT) as well as BOC governor Stephen Poloz (19:00, GMT) speak.
·Support: 0.6820(S1), 0.6780(S2),0.6725(S3)
·Resistance:0.6852(R1),0.6900(R2),0.6955(R3)
USD/JPY
·Support: 109.75(S1), 109.25(S2), 108.70(S3)
·Resistance: 110.25(R1), 110.75(R2), 111.30(R3)
