As we all know, today is the RBA rate decision and the market expects a cut from 3.25% to 3.0%. AUD was very weak during the last few days compared to other risk-on currencies, so we need to keep in mind that rate cut may already be calculated in market price. Therefore, despite a possible cut AUD could spike higher and cause »buy the rumor sell the fact« reaction. Anyhow I have bullish GBPAUD count and bullish AUDJPY pairs here which is obviously a different story for AUD.
If AUD will fall after the announcement then GBPAUD will probably rise sharply, maybe even in wave three of three towards 1.5530. In such case we would be interested to buy fourth wave pull-back.
GBP/AUD: Bearish Count For AUD
GBP/AUD" title="gbpaud" width="500" height="520">
If AUD gains significantly after the report, then the AUD/JPY should be on the radar, because GBP/AUD will probably become invalid count. In such case our focus will be break higher, out of a fourth wave triangle.
AUD/JPY: Bullish Count For AUD
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RBA Rate Decision: Bullish And Bearish Scenarios
Published 12/03/2012, 11:25 AM
Updated 07/09/2023, 06:31 AM
RBA Rate Decision: Bullish And Bearish Scenarios
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