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Quebec Exports Flat In February

ByThe National Bank of Canada
Published 04/30/2012, 06:05 AM
Updated 05/14/2017, 06:45 AM
CL
-1.18%
DU
-1.84%
Facts

The Institut de la statistique du Québec reports that Quebec’s trade deficit narrowed $543 million to $1.5 billion in February, after a sharp deterioration in January (top chart). The value of exports, however, was almost flat on the month (+$60 million or 1.2%) after its 17.4% plunge in January. A $126-million rise in aluminum exports in February was partly offset by a $56-million decline in exports of petroleum and coal projects, with changes in other categories close to balancing each other out.

In total, 13 of 23 product groups, accounting for 63% exports, showed declines. Imports were down $484 million or 6.8%, cancelling the January rise. Almost three-quarters of the decrease were due to a fall of crude oil imports to a more normal level. Yet imports were down in 16 of 24 product groups accounting for 70% of imports. In constant dollars, the trade deficit narrowed $395 million to $1.7 billion. Exports increased $71 million (+1.5%) to $4.9 billion. Imports decreased $324 million (-4.7%) to $6.5 billion. Export prices fell 0.3% and import prices fell 2.1%.
Quebec Nominal trade balance
Opinion

The December surge in aerospace exports appears to have been an isolated spike. The expected growth of Quebec international volume exports in 2012 still has to materialize, with exports on the rise in the rest of Canada (middle chart). For the moment, the December spike means that trade has subtracted from economic growth so far in Q1 (bottom chart). We nevertheless think it will not do so for 2012 as a whole, leaving Quebec GDP growth for the year at 1.4%. The modesty of this anticipation is due to an expected decline in government investment.
International merchandise exports
Quebec Volume trade balance

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