MAJOR HEADLINES – PREVIOUS SESSION
- RBNZ cuts cash rate 100bp to 6.5%, as expected
- JAPAN SEPT Imports +28.8 PCT YR/YR--MOF (expected +24.0 PCT)
- JAPAN SEPT Exports +1.5 PCT YR/YR--MOF (expected +5.2 PCT)
- JAPAN SEPT Trade surplus 95.11 BLN YEN--MOF (expected +600 BLN YEN)
- IMF says to start loan talks with Belarus shortly
THEMES TO WATCH
French Consumer Spending (Sep) 0645
Sweden’s Riksbank Rate Decision 0730
Eurozone c/a data (Aug) 0800
UK Retail Sales (Sep) 0830
US weekly jobless claims 1230
THEMES TO WATCH – UPCOMING SESSION
Market Comments
The Reserve Bank of New Zealand slashed interest rates by a record 100bp bringing the cash rate down to 6.5%, a move that had been widely anticipated by the markets, citing tight credit conditions and market turmoil as the reasons for the move. The accompanying statement highlighted that the central bank was still concerned about high inflation but added that it would not preclude any further rate cuts. Initial reaction in FX markets saw a weaker NZD but the bird soon recovered some of its poise.
Japan’s Sept trade figures pointed to a disturbing slowdown in export growth, with exports easing 1.3% m/m, the second straight month of declines. Declines were across the globe, exports to the US down for the 13th straight month, but by a somewhat lesser -28.1% y/y pace vs -48.53 y/y prior, whilst exports to the EU pulled back by a more steep -9.0% y/y after a first time -3.5% fall on the August year. Export growth to Asia otherwise slowed to rise by a lesser +2.9% vs +6.6% y/y prior; but the most disturbing was export growth to China; which fell to a mere 1.1% y/y pace vs 8.8% prior in a sign of a global slowdown well underway. Growth in imports was a lofty 28.8% y/y driven by soaring oil and raw material costs at the time. These factors combined to force the trade surplus down to a mere Y95.1 bln vs Y600 bln expected and was down a hefty 94.1% y/y. Today’s Nikkei newspaper carried a story highlighting that most exporters had misjudged the extent of the JPY’s recent rise, having expected EURJPY to trade 155-165 this fiscal year and the article suggested Sony and Honda will be under increasing scrutiny as the gap widens between their budgeted EURJPY rates and current spot levels.
AUD held up quite well o/n into the early Asian session amid market chatter that ConocoPhillips, the third-largest U.S. oil company, had received approval from Australia's Foreign Investment Review Board to acquire half of Origin Energy Ltd's coal-seam gas unit. The transaction, worth as much as $8 billion, is now unconditional and Sydney-based Origin expects to receive an up-front payment of $5 billion at the settlement of the deal, expected in about one week, according to a statement to the Australian Stock Exchange today. However, once the order appeared to have been cleared, AUD continued its downward slide given the weak commodity environment.
Activity in Asia was ‘relatively’ muted, with big swings confined to the open. EURUSD jumped 1 big figure on nothing and has slowly drifted off since then. USDJPY grinding lower but JPY crosses more aggressive in their slide as Asian bourses succumbed to broad-based selling, down on average around 4%. AUDUSD still holding up amid talk the corporate buying order referred to above has not yet been taken out.