Gold
After two false breaks of the $1790, both of which have led to HL’s (higher lows), Gold seems to be forming a price action squeeze, along with a 20ema carry on the 4hr time frame. Ironically, this has all happened while the USD has gained, suggesting the precious metals are the main risk-off play out there. Keep in mind, gold has outperformed pretty much every major instrument quarter and YTD.
Aggressive traders can take longs off the 20ema, but with the ECB announcement tomorrow and the NFP on Friday, this would be an aggressive move. Expect some shakeout during the NFP announcement, but if this continues, I’m expecting a breakout above $1790 and $1800 to end this week. Should that happen, expect medium term stops to be tripped just past $1802 which should put $1826 and $1840 in play.
XAU/USD" title="XAU/USD" width="588" height="351">
Original post
After two false breaks of the $1790, both of which have led to HL’s (higher lows), Gold seems to be forming a price action squeeze, along with a 20ema carry on the 4hr time frame. Ironically, this has all happened while the USD has gained, suggesting the precious metals are the main risk-off play out there. Keep in mind, gold has outperformed pretty much every major instrument quarter and YTD.
Aggressive traders can take longs off the 20ema, but with the ECB announcement tomorrow and the NFP on Friday, this would be an aggressive move. Expect some shakeout during the NFP announcement, but if this continues, I’m expecting a breakout above $1790 and $1800 to end this week. Should that happen, expect medium term stops to be tripped just past $1802 which should put $1826 and $1840 in play.
XAU/USD" title="XAU/USD" width="588" height="351">Original post