Tsipras's call for a referendum on the Institutions' proposals has changed the Greek game, and we have now moved from 'plan A' to 'plan B' - but the problem is there was no 'plan B'.
The situation of the Greek public has deteriorated with the closure of the Greek banks and the elevated uncertainty over Greece's future.
The latest referendum polls show a small majority for accepting the present 'deal' and a large majority of the Greek population still wants Greece to stay in the euro area.
We expect the Greek population to vote 'Yes' on Sunday, but Tsipras's aggressive campaign for a 'No' vote makes it a close call.
If the Greek population votes 'Yes', a new Greek bailout programme is much more likely, but the political uncertainty will probably remain for some time.
In case of a 'No' vote, the path towards a Grexit goes through a halt of the ECB's ELA funding. The trigger of a broad Greek default will be no payment to the ECB 20 July.
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