In Sweden the NIER publishes household and business confidence surveys (Thursday at 0900 CEST). Statistics Sweden is scheduled to publish Producer prices (incl. export and import prices), also on Thursday (at 0930 CEST) and financial market statistics (on Friday, at 0930 CEST), including - importantly - household lending for housing purposes, which is one of the main domestic risks.
Our base case for the Riksbank is another 10bp rate cut in December combined with an extended asset purchase program. But admittedly, the probability of a move in October (policy announcement on the 28 October) has increased after the krona has strengthened. Our base case is still another 10bp rate cut combined with an extended asset purchase program in December. But the probability of a move as soon as October has increased.
In Norway we expect that Norges Bank will cut its benchmark rate by 25bp at the rate-setting meeting on Thursday. We also expect the interest rate path in the new monetary policy report to point to an almost 50/50 chance of another rate cut by March.
We like the mid-segment of the NGB curve vs. Germany. We also see value in receiving NOK rates 2y2y outright as level is attractive and as the roll is positive.
In Denmark the statistical office is set to publish housing price data for Q2. Also coming up are consumer confidence data for September and retail sales figures for August.
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