Political Rumbling And Sluggish Growth

The deteriorated economic situation since 2009 has fuelled public unrest, which has long been latent. But it was the increase in electricity prices, voted in summer 2012, that crystallised strong opposition when the price increase was enacted in January, in the midst of a particularly rude winter. This gave rise to a massive protest movement that regularly mobilised tens of thousands of protestors across the country, including numerous pension holders (their net monthly pension averages only €150), hard hit by the crisis. The movement even triggered several self-immolations. Demands for better living conditions were at times interspersed with more political statements attacking the policies of Prime Minister Boïko Borissov, in power since July 2009. Several measures were launched, but none managed to appease public outrage: Finance Minister Simeon Djankov, the prime mover of austerity policies, was fired; electricity prices were cut by 8% in March, and a lawsuit was filed against CEZ, the Czech electricity provider that serves the western part of the country. Confronted with his ongoing decline in popularity, Mr. Borissov decided to move forward legislative elections, which were normally scheduled for early July. He resigned on 20 February, triggering the formation of a transition government led by Marin Raikov.

Above all, the 12 May election revealed the people’s scepticism of politicians, with a participation rate of 53.5% (down from 60.2% in 2009). Second, it failed to produce a clear majority: of the 240 parliamentary seats, 98 went to GERB (Citizens for European development of Bulgaria), Mr. Borissov’s centre-right party; 86 seats to the Socialist party BSP; 33 to the Movement for Rights and Freedoms, which unites the votes of the Turkish population; and 23 seats for Ataka, an ultra-nationalist extreme right group. Mr. Borissov’s party was isolated on the political stage, preventing it from forming a new government. A coalition comprised of the Socialist party and the Turkish minority emerged, but its leader, Plamen Orecharski, was only able to ratify his technocratic government through Ataka’s abstention. The government is now in a minority position because the two parties supporting it have only 119 seats, which has made it weak from day 1. The fact that it could only win support with Ataka’s tacit support also undermined its ideological coherence: the ruling coalition must constantly strive to work with the extreme right, which is openly xenophobic and wants to ban the construction of mosques, while the Movement for Rights and Freedoms defends the interests of the Muslim minority. Ataka is also anti-European, which runs against the deep convictions of the BSP.

Looking beyond this congenital anomaly, the Orecharski government encountered massive protests as of June, stigmatizing relations between the political and business worlds. The main cause was the nomination of Deputy Delyan Peevski as head of the National Security Agency. This 32 year old did not have any real qualifications for the job, and his mother, Irena Krusteva, directs a vast media empire. Although the appointment was eventually cancelled, the damage was done and the protest movement continued into early July. Unlike last winter’s protests, however, the movement has become more urban, more political (it mainly targets political corruption) and unites a more highly educated group of people less directly affected by the crisis. This popular unrest could boost the standing of the small parties who did not win a big enough share of the vote (4%) to qualify for a seat in Parliament: Democrats for a Strong Bulgaria (which is trying to unite a fragmented right and could bring together 8-10% of voters), the Green party, and Bulgaria for Citizens, a centrist party led by the former European Commissioner Meglena Kuneva.

■ A depressed economy
The troubles sweeping the country since the beginning of the year can be attributed to several factors, but the people’s lassitude over the precariousness of purchasing power served as a real catalyst. The country never really recovered from the 2009 recession, when GDP contracted 5.5% in real terms. Growth has remained sluggish over the past three years at 0.4% in 2010, 1.8% in 2011 and 0.8% in 2012, and this year it is only expected to improve slightly. Granted, external trade contributed positively to growth through 2011, but that was mainly due to feeble imports. Exports, which account for 67% of GDP, were hard hit by the economic slump in Europe in 2012 (the EU absorbs 58% of Bulgarian exports, despite their gradual diversification to third countries). Above all, domestic demand was slow to recover between 2009 and 2011.

BY Alexandre VINCENT

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