Spanish 10-year sovereign bond yields have shot above 7% this morning, following rating agency Moody’s decision to cut the country’s credit rating to BAA3 from A3. This is one notch above junk status. When this happened to Greece, Ireland and Portugal it prompted bailouts from the European Union and International Monetary Fund, while the same occurrence in Italy at the end of last year spelled the end of Silvio Berlusconi’s colourful premiership.
The problem is that bailing out Spain could cost as much as €300 billion, which would exhaust most of the €500bn allocated to the European Stability Mechanism. The ESM is the permanent eurozone rescue fund that will succeed the temporary European Financial Stability Facility (EFSF) from July. So Spain is arguably too big to bail absent the European Central Bank taking more aggressive steps to monetise the country’s debt.
Commodities and stocks remained under pressure yesterday, with US markets down on disappointing American retail sales data. Gold is holding firm above $1,600, while silver tested the $29 mark during trading yesterday. The big precious metals news of the day was arguably in the platinum market though, with WSJ reporting that a new World Health Organization report has just classified diesel exhaust fumes as carcinogenic.
The link to platinum is the metal’s use as a filter on diesel exhausts – which accounted for 62% of platinum usage last year. As HSBC precious metal analyst Jim Steel notes, increased regulation aimed at filtering diesel fumes could lead to a jump in platinum demand.