Order Book Hints Prove Right Ahead Of NFP

Despite a rather dull and predictable ECB Press Conference with the one real note being the improved growth forecast in 2014, the markets shot up today and last night's order book ensured we were on the right side of each of these moves.

Essentially after the pretty plain ECB press conference markets took to short covering lots of the positions and knocking through some key levels particularly in USD/JPY which then cause a rather large spike.

Retail traders seemed to use this as an opportunity to continue to buy the US Dollar but we aren't so sure yet with NFP up tomorrow and the poor US data we could still see some further pressure on the USD, followed by some early evening profit taking; a better number could provide some correctional relief.
Note we also had BoE unchanged and Initial Jobless continuing the weak data out of the US.

EUR/USD
We highlighted yesterday that we remain long this pair, if you have been following our charts we entered long on the May 22 and continue to hold this position looking for the next short opportunity.

The aggressive moves in the order book today as Retail Traders continued to short the pair we might be close to switching but we suspect we will be again holding EUR/USD long into the weekend.
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Daily chart now at a previous resistance level, a lot could rest on data out of the US tomorrow, but as ever with aggressive moves we wouldn't be surprised to see some of this paired back.
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GBP/USD
We spoke last night of going long the Pound and the moves continued to favour that position again today.
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The order book has now switched into Short Territory suggesting we could see further upside in this pair, however we have the 200-Day SMA and the resistance level at the 1.5600 to contend with first which may cause some choppy trading.
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Pair would now have to hold below the 200-Day SMA to confirm our lower range theory.

AUD/USD
Aussie switched at 10am this morning as the pair broke below the 0.9500 level and we jumped long on this pair, which has for now played out well.
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As much as we continue to like the idea of a bounce higher in the pair the relative chop at these levels is likely to continue but Daily chart also supports a move higher from these levels.

If we continue to see Retail Traders close longs as we move higher then this pair could gather some quick momentum tot the upside; alternatively clearing stops tomorrow on a risk event could also give the pair some momentum.
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USD/CHF
Pair still looks set to offer us a potential turning point but we used the aggressive moves to jump short initially before the switch to a long position.

We are looking for a change in the direction of the order book but given today's buying by Retail Traders that now may take slightly longer to come off.
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Current levels offer some support if we can hold above them.
Could be really interesting to watch on a poor NFP number tomorrow.
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