New research from Danske Bank Markets
Over the past week, Danske Research has been on roadshows in Stockholm and London, seeing around 35 investor and corporate clients.
There was a large divergence in their views on the Riksbank decision on 28 October, ranging between a 0bp and a 20bp rate cut. We expect the Riksbank to cut rates by 15bp. In our view, clients should receive FRASEP16, target 0.40%, stop-loss 0.80% and position for a higher EUR/SEK into the meeting.
Clients are bearish on Norway's GDP growth and the NOK on a lower oil price and falling oil investments. We disagree, as we believe Norway can live with lower oil investments. In Danske Bank's FX Trading Portfolio, we are short EUR/NOK 3M forward outright, target 8.20, stop-loss 8.50.
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