It's not too optimistic
When we are updating our FX forecasts for the EMEA currencies, we utilise our EMEA FX Scorecard to get an overview of the short-term drivers in the EMEA markets and it is an important input in our forecast process - particularly for our three-month forecasts.
Given the latest jitters in the EMEA markets, we think it is useful to have a closer look at the Scorecard. The overall picture is not very encouraging - in general our Scorecard is telling us that the sell-off in the EMEA FX markets is not necessarily over yet.
Be careful, but begin to look for opportunities
So the conclusion is that the near-term outlook for the EMEA currencies is not rosy and it seems quite likely that currencies like the zloty and the rand will remain under pressure. However, we would also caution that one should not extrapolate the recent trend forever into the future. Eventually attractive valuations will help stabilise the EMEA currencies. We are not there yet - but we are getting closer.
To Read the Entire Report Please Click on the pdf File Below.